Posted: October 20th, 2022

POPULAR PROTESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS

POPULAR PROTESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS

Introduction
The Middle East is definitely one of the most interesting parts of the world. The fact that most of the world’s oil comes from the Middle East also make it the subject of many political analysts. Events affecting government and politics in the Middle East are followed very closely by analysts in all corners of the world; the main reason being that any adverse effects of the events being followed may cause either economic shocks or in some cases, war and conflict between the Western powers and the Middle East. Indeed one of the most closely followed as well as one of the most dynamic and transformative events of the century were the Arab Spring protests that started in December 2010 and shook the political and governmental foundations of most countries in the Arab world. It all started in Northern Africa which is considered part of the Arab world and more specifically in Tunisia. The protests then spread to the rest of the Arab world like bush fire. Indeed some of these protests are still ongoing despite it being almost three years since the revolutions begun. This paper aims at studying and analyzing some of these popular protests by identifying their causes as well as the consequences and results of these protests in the Arab world as well as globally.. Of major interest will be the protests in Egypt and Syria. I will take on a country by country approach in writing this paper.
Egypt: An Overview of Events
Though Egypt is in Africa, it is largely considered to be among the countries in the Middle East. The country has seen its fair share of political dictatorship having had only four presidents since 1953. Hosni Mubarak, the subject of most of the modern day popular protests in Egypt had risen from vice president to president in 1981 (McCormack, 2011). His tight grip on the presidency coupled with the state of emergency that had been in place since 1981 was not going down well with the citizens of the country and more so the Muslim Brotherhood. It is this dissension that was slowly brewing up into what would become known as the Arab spring.
In August 2004, inspired by the Muslim Brotherhoods efforts and initiatives, the Egyptian Movement for Change popularly known as Kefaya (which means ‘enough’) had brought together 300 dynamic activists ranging from Islamists to Marxists and even Liberals (Ismael & Ismael, 2012). The main aim of the Kefaya movement was to end the monopoly of Hosni Mubarak as well as his party the National Democratic Party. The movement attempted to demand for Mubarak’s resignation. In order to force Mubarak towards their doping, Kefaya organized demonstrations in Cairo. It is these demonstrations that led to the break in the tradition of demonstrations directed towards foreign affairs (Ismael & Ismael, 2012). Among the demands put forward at the time by Kefaya and other affiliated groups included calling for an end to the state of emergency, amending the constitution to limit the terms of presidents to two five-year terms., freedom to establish and start up political parties, free elections as well as a call to end NDP’s dominance in the state media (Ismael & Ismael, 2012). These Kefaya led protests continued into the year 2006 and though they did not succeed in ousting Mubarak, they did succeed in laying the foundations of future protests (Group, 2011). Mubarak’s government, having seen what dissidents could do and the risk they posed to the continuity of the government, begun repressing and persecuting anyone who tried to speak out against the government.
On 25th January 2011, Hosni Mubarak woke up to a similar nightmare yet again; the protests that had been so prevalent in Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan and Oman had finally spilled over into Egypt. This was to become the beginning of Mubarak’s end. The anger of the protestors was fuelled by many reasons. Top among these reasons were poverty, inflation (rising prices of goods and services), social exclusion, corruption and the embezzlement of public funds by the selfish political elite (Arab uprising:country by country- Egypt, 2013). In addition to this, most people were angered by the tight grip that Hosni Mubarak maintained on the presidency; they wanted him out and they wanted it done as soon as possible. As one protestor called Ahmed Raafat Amin would put it, “Our country’s condition was getting worse and worse. There was corruption, torture, injustice, inequality and no freedom. Someone had to stand up and say ‘enough is enough’” (Arab uprising:country by country- Egypt, 2013). The main inspiration this time was the turnout of events in Tunisia where Ben Ali had been ousted after weeks of nationwide protests and this time too, they had a powerful weapon in the name of social media. On the 29th of January, Mubarak attempted to woo protestors to stop the protests by dismissing his cabinet and announcing the speeding up of reforms intended to help the poor and encourage democracy in the country (Group, 2011). He even appointed a vice president (Omar Suleiman) for the first time in his presidency. But this was not what the people wanted and the protests still continued. On the 10th of February, he attempted to further woo the protestors by ceding power to his vice-president; the catch however, was that he would not quit the presidency until the end of his term (News, 2011). This did nothing to calm down the protestors and instead the protests grew fiercer. The next day, the new vice president was forced to announce that Mubarak had fully resigned and had handed control to the military (Michael & Schemm, 2011); an announcement that was met by jubilation by the protestors. After 18 harrowing protest days, at least 846 dead people and more than 6,400 people injured, Mubarak’s reign had come to an end (Arab uprising:country by country- Egypt, 2013).
Results of the Popular Protests in Egypt
The outcomes of the protests in Egypt could be categorized into two; the positive and the negative outcomes. Some of the positive outcomes include the primary one which is the ousting of Mubarak’s dictatorship and hence, the promise towards a democracy. Mubarak was later on convicted and given a life sentence for ordering the killing of protestors (Arab uprising:country by country- Egypt, 2013). Secondly there was the dissolution of the National Democratic Party which had long been the ruling party (Aljazeera, 2011). In addition to that, the much feared State Security Investigations Service which had been accused of torturing people and abusing human rights was also disbanded (Aljazeera, Egyptian state security disbanded, 2011). A year after the spring, the military leadership announced the end of the 31 year old state of emergency that had been in place since 1981 (BBC, 2012) an event that was a big step forward towards democracy. Another positive result was of course the occurrence of the first free and democratic elections in Egypt in which Mohammed Morsi was declared president.
On the other hand, it is would be quite interesting to note that the Arab spring in Egypt is touted as having brought about the worst damage (Kenyon, 2011). The Egyptian economy was adversely affected especially from the plummeting tourism as well as the surging poverty, unemployment and underemployment levels (Kenyon, 2011). According to Abu Saud Mustafa a trader in papyrus art, one of his pieces before the spring would sell for between $10 and $15, a situation that completely changed after the spring as he started fetching between $2 and $3 a piece (Kenyon, 2011). Crime rates also went up; a situation that was caused by the decision made by Mubarak’s regime to release up to 23, 000 prisoners to help fight against the revolution. In addition to that, Morsi’s election proved to be a hefty mistake as cases of sexual harassment increased, Morsi also amassed powers to make laws in the absence of parliament as well as giving himself immunity from judicial review; something that crippled the transition towards democracy in Egypt. In addition to that, unemployment levels rose even more after Morsi’s election to a level of 13.6% an increase of 0.6%. Economic freedom in Egypt has also been affected due to the slumbering economy which has seen the prices of basic commodities soar (Nikhil, 2013). All these coupled with many other reasons led to yet another revolution against Morsi, this time, the protests eclipsed those that helped oust Mubarak. The climax of these protests was the army ousting president Morsi in July of 2013 (Laughland, 2013). This event also saw the suspension of Egypt’s constitution by the army; a situation that would continue until new elections were held. These events yet again affected the move towards a more democratic movement as well as having adverse effects on the price of crude oil which broke the $100; something that had not happened since April of 2012 (Fontevecchia, 2013). This situation has once again seen the development of yet another conflict between the Muslim brotherhood and the military which is being led by General Sisi (Chechatka, 2013). The end result of all this is of course more insecurity, rising inflation, more deaths from the conflict and more unemployment in the country. More so, the currency of the country has also been on a downward trend ever since the revolution started (Solovieva, 2013). Religiously, the relationship between the Christian minority and the Muslim majority is also on the rocks.
Implications of the Egyptian Situation Globally
Egypt controls the Suez Canal which is a vital pathway for ships and more so those transporting oil. Aside from that, the country also has a major pipeline in which 2 million barrels of oil are exported from the Persian Gulf (Kerley & Taylor, 2011).With this in mind, it is therefore not hard to see the impact that the Egyptian situation both in 2011 as well as in 2013 had on the international energy sector and more specifically on crude oil. After the protests that ousted Mubarak in 2011 for example, oil prices rose to the highest levels they had ever been at since 2008 (Irwin & Schneider, 2011). During the most recent bout of protests in which Morsi was ousted, fears of oil supply being disrupted drove up the price of oil to above the $100 mark (Rozhnov, 2013). These fears mainly arose from the prediction that other oil producing nations in the Arab world and more so those with autocratic governments would experience their fair share of protests thus disrupting oil supply even more (Irwin & Schneider, 2011). Aside from the threat on global oil supply and global oil prices, the Egyptian situation also played a role in driving up food prices (Irwin & Schneider, 2011).
The fact that Egypt mainly depends on imports of wheat and other staples also meant that trade between it and the countries providing these staples was affected (Irwin & Schneider, 2011). Shipping along the Suez Canal was also affected thus impacting on global trade which partly depends on the Suez Canal.
On the political scene, which also includes foreign policy, the situation in Egypt caused quite some ripples. The protests in 2011 caused uncertainty on the future of the Israeli- Egypt peace treaty of 1979 (Khidhir, 2011)These uncertainties had been aroused by the Muslim Brotherhoods possible rise to power and the fears escalated after Morsi (affiliated to the Muslim brotherhood movement) was elected president. A break from the peace deal would have strained Israel’s diplomatic relations with countries in the Middle East. The fears were further catalyzed by the increased anti-Israel attitude in Egypt brought about by the hard-line Muslim brotherhood movement (Khidhir, 2011). The Muslim Brotherhood also rode high on the protests with their influence spreading like bushfire to other Arab countries such as Yemen and Syria where they played major roles in similar revolts (Kinninmont, 2013)
The most recent protests however brought relief to most of the International community as the Muslim brotherhood was overthrown and Morsi ousted from power. These events saw the relationship between Egypt and countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait improved (SAFPI, 2013). However, USA and Palestine were the losers with the relationship between these two countries and Egypt being strained. The situation between Egypt and Palestine was such that the Rafah border was almost shut down while 90% of the tunnels from Gaza to Egypt were destroyed (SAFPI, 2013). Saudi Arabia and UAE are undoubtedly the biggest gainers from the coup which illustrated that the Muslim Brotherhoods ideologies are not practical. After the coup, the two countries together with Kuwait pledged $12 million dollars in aid to the interim government appointed by the government. In addition to that, they also promised to make up for any deficits arising from aid being pulled down due to the coup (SAFPI, 2013).
The outcome of the protests (democratically elected government being ousted) saw the AU expel Egypt until the day the democratic process in Egypt would be revived (SAFPI, 2013).
It is also widely feared that the renewed unrest in Egypt could lead to renewed protests in other Arab countries (Kinninmont, 2013).
Syria: An Overview of Events
This is yet another interesting front from which to study the Arab spring. Syria is a special case in that President Bashar al-Assad is still holding onto power and the protests have grown into a full blown civil war. Syria has been ruled by the powerful Assad family since 1970. This was after Hafez al Assad overthrew the government at the time. In 1971, he was elected president for a seven year term. His family has been in control ever since with his son Bashar al-Assad taking over in 2000 after his death. Syria has often been put on the spot over its involvement in Lebanon as well as its alleged support of terrorism and development of weapons of mass destruction (BBC, BBC news- Syria Profile-Timeline, 2013). This is something that has often caused friction between Syria and the west more so the USA. The country also has one of the most independent foreign policies in the Middle East thus making it pivotal in the politics of the Middle East. In addition to that, it is a key ally of Russia and Iran as well as a sworn enemy of Israel. All these factors make it a pivotal and influential country in the Middle East (Manfreda, 2013)
Inspired by the Tunisian revolt, protests also started in the country. The main reasons for the protests included among others, demands for the release of political prisoners, anger over the rising unemployment levels, dictatorship and a repressive government, corruption as well as the political oppression and torture of any dissidents in the country (Manfreda, 2013). The government reacted violently to these protests with security forces shooting down several people in Deraa during the earlier days of the protests (BBC, BBC news- Syria Profile-Timeline, 2013). This of course did not go down well with the protestors who also reacted violently. Attempts in April of 2011 by the government to quell the protests by releasing political prisoners, dismissing government and ending the 48 year old state of emergency failed. The president also accuses the protestors of being agents of Israel and in May, the army starts efforts to crush the anti-regime protests in Deraa, Banyas, Horns and Damascus (BBC, BBC news- Syria Profile-Timeline, 2013). This violence from the government inspires a violent reaction from the opposition is what develops into a full blown civil war that is still on going; a civil war that has threatened global peace and stability on a number of occasions. This threat on global peace and stability escalated in August 2013, after the Syrian government launched a chemical attack outside Damascus (Manfreda, 2013)

Consequences of the Conflict for Syria
The civil unrest has had a devastating effect on Syria. Apart from crippling its economy, the conflict has also left about 100, 000 people dead, injured tens of thousands of people and displaced millions of people both internally and externally (Colling, 2013). In addition to that, the unrest has also seen massive destruction of the environment. This destruction together with the toll of people killed, injured or displaced is expected to increase gradually as the unrest continues.
Aside from these, the country has also been the subject of international sanctions since the conflict started. The European Union for example froze the assets of the central bank of Syria, sanctioned 13 Syrian officials, imposed an arms embargo, imposed sanctions on the president himself, and banned Syrian oil imports as well as sanctions on the Syria’s main mobile phone operator and Addounia TV (Reuters, 2012). Turkey also imposed sanctions of its own by suspending all relations with the Syrian central bank as well as stalling a cooperation agreement between it and Syria. The US was also not left behind as it issued travel bans against Syrian officials, freezing all Syrian assets in the USA as well as sanctioning the Syrian intelligence agency among other measures (Reuters, 2012). Possibly the most surprising sanctions however came from the Arab League which imposed economic measures against Syria. This included bring to a halt all dealings with the Commercial Bank of Syria and the Syrian central bank (Reuters, 2012)
Global Implications of the Syrian Conflict
Though the Syrian conflict has had an effect on global trade as well as global energy prices, the biggest effect it has had is on the political scene. Indeed, the situation in Syria has posed a huge challenge to international politics, peace and stability. Indeed, the conflict has seen the development of a scramble of sorts; a scramble which seeks to determine which international powers has regional influence (Manfreda, 2013). This scramble has seen the supporters of the government in Syria (Russia, Iran, Iraq, China and the Lebanese Hezbollah) pitted against the allies of the rebels (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, US and Europe) (Manfreda, 2013).
The first victim of this ripple effect of the unrest in Syria has been the region around it which has seen its stability and security threatened. Probably one of the most affected countries is Lebanon and Turkey which have seen a huge influx of refugees from Syria (Saddy, 2011). In fact in Lebanon, the refugees now account for about 10% of the population and this has resulted in more tension between the locals and the refugees thus threatening the security situation in Lebanon (Colling, 2013). Turkey has on several occasions been on the brink of war with Syria due to the regular conflict spill- overs that have been occurring. If Turkey feels that its national interests are being threatened, it is likely to respond in aggression thus throwing the region into further tumult. The fact that Turkey is also in support of the rebels in Syria could also have serious long term consequences on its relations with Syria. This however depends on the outcome of the situation in Syria (Colling, 2013).
Israel is also looking keenly at the situation in Syria as Syria is a major threat to its security (Colling, 2013). This has caused the country to increase its alert levels more so in Northern Israel. Israel is also likely to react aggressively if it feels its national security is being threatened in any way. This is something that has already happened on several occasions as it has carried out air strikes against suspected Syrian arms shipments in January as well as in May 2013 (Colling, 2013). Any Syrian-Israeli conflict is likely to pull in the USA which is Israel’s strongest ally (Wiersema, 2013).
The USA and Russia have also been on the brink of conflict over the recent use of chemical weapons in Syria. While USA supports military intervention, Russia did not support military intervention and instead supports a diplomatic solution (Wiersema, 2013) . This war of words and ideologies between Russia and USA resulted in USA pulling back after Russia suggested to broker a deal with Syria in which Syria would hand over all its chemical weapons (Manfreda, 2013). In my view, this was yet another twist in global politics as many critics felt that Obama was playing second fiddle to Russia’s Putin. It is important to note that Russia’s support of Syria is spiraled by the fact that it enjoys a lucrative arms trade relationship with Syria (having traded arms worth $1 billion in 2011 and having $4 billion in outstanding contracts with the country) (Manfreda, 2013). Another major factor is the Tartous Port in which Russia has the only naval outpost in the Mediterranean (Manfreda, 2013). Any invasion of Syria by the west or by Israel would therefore mean that this pivotal naval base could be compromised which could then lead to conflict on an even larger scale.
Conclusion
Having gone through and having analyzed the situations in Egypt and Syria the very first conclusion that can be made is that politics and government in the Middle East play a major role in the global political and economic stability. It is also clear that the Middle East is now awakening and democratic roots are starting to sprout. The fact that the Arab spring spread so fast across the Middle East is proof of this. In relation to that, it is now clear that because of technological advancements more so in ICT, new forms and new types of interconnectedness are starting to develop (Ulrichsen, 2011); it is these new developments that are catalyzing the growth of democracy as well as political awakening globally.
The international community cannot afford to look away from what is happening in the middle east as looking away could lead to future global conflicts and a future global economic break down. In light of this, it will be interesting to follow the reactions of the international community more so the European Union, the USA, Russia and Israel towards the conflict in Syria. However, all we can hope for is that the situation will end with a democratic Syria and a more peaceful and stable Middle East region.
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