Posted: December 6th, 2022

REMF37 Quantitative Techniques

Pre-Experience PG Assessment Brief
Module Code and Title REMF37 Quantitative Techniques
Module Convenor Prof Yiquan Gu (Convenor)
Type of Assessment ☐ Essay
☐ Report
☒ Project
☐ Practical Skills Exercise
☐ In-Class Test
☐ Group Report
☐ Group Presentation
☐ Portfolio

Other: Click or tap here to enter text.

Weighting of Assessment 40% of Module Assessment
Submission Deadline 2.00 pm on Wednesday, 14th December 2022
Submission Point (Blackboard/Turnitin/Other)
All coursework submissions should be completed electronically on Blackboard via submission point on the relevant module site. No hard copy submissions will be accepted. Submission links will be available under ‘Assignments’ or ‘Assessments’ in the Blackboard Course menu for each module. You will be able to check the version uploaded during the process of submission.

Items to be Submitted One project in PDF format
Individual or Group Assessment ☒ Individual
☐ Group

Module Convenor Office Hours/Opportunities for advice and feedback Prof Yiquan Gu
Email: yiquan.gu@henley.ac.uk

1. What is the Purpose of This Assessment?

The following table shows which of the module learning outcomes are being assessed in this assignment. Use this table to help you see the connection between this assessment and your learning on the module.
Module Learning Outcomes Being Assessed

• Apply a range of applied statistical techniques.
• Obtain a critical understanding of the concepts relating to econometric modelling.
• Application and use of quantitative methods with real estate data.
• Use of software packages to perform analysis.
• Interpret and evaluate published results of empirical research in real estate.

2. What is the Task for this Assessment?

Task (attach a separate briefing document if required) Econometric models are routinely applied to generate rental forecasts for commercial real estate markets. The purpose of this project is to analyse the current situation of the Hong Kong office market and provide an informed and analytically rigorous view of the market dynamics with a view to forecasting rental growth for the next few years.

The main task is to produce a technical report on the outlook for Hong Kong office market. You aim to model rental growth looking at the possible determinants or drivers of the market. While the data for the dependent variable (i.e., the office rental index) and some independent variables are provided, you can collect additional independent variables that you deem appropriate in the modelling. The maximum number of independent variables you can use in the report is “6”.

It is also important to state the source of your collected explanatory variables and why it is relevant for the intended purpose. Furthermore, you should provide an assessment/in-sample forecast Assessment for rental growth in the last five years i.e. 2017 – 2021 both years inclusive.

3. What is Required of me in this Assessment?

Guidelines/Details of How to Prepare Your Submission Aspects that you should take into consideration include the following:
1. An overview and historic profile of trends in Hong Kong office market.
2. Identify the drivers and provide an account of what has driven rent.
3. Formulate a multivariate regression model of explaining rental growth. Based on your expectations about the coefficient signs, interpret the results and comment on the quality of the model including the descriptive statistics.
4. Estimate an in-sample forecast Assessment on the outlook of office market rental growth.
5. Discuss the limitations of any models, and the forecasts, that you have estimated.

A good assignment will:
• Provide a brief overview of the market segment;
• Demonstrate an understanding of the underlying concepts;
• Demonstrate an understanding of relevant data for empirical analysis;
• Demonstrate an ability to carry out empirical analyses;
• Produce a coherent report communicating your arguments and findings in a clear structure, explaining the steps and approach;
• Generally, show evidence of research, reading and effort.
The assessment criteria to be used for marking this piece of work
Refer to the marking criteria rubric at the end of this document.
Self-Regulation: Make sure That You… • Read the brief thoroughly and carefully.
• Read the assessment criteria to make sure you tick all the boxes.
• You are likely to compute several combinations of models, you are ONLY expected to present two (2) or at most three (3) of the best models you compute, of which you will choose THE BEST MODEL to discuss.

Three Key Pieces of Advice Based on the Feedback Given to the Previous Cohort who Completed This Assignment • Ensure you provide enough motivation for the choice and selection of your variables.
• Ensure you run stationarity tests for your series as well as apply and discuss diagnostic test.
• Ensure you discuss your results to the full extent.
For Group Work Only: Elements of Group Working:

☐ Classroom briefing by the Module Convenor
☐ Regular meetings of all team members
☐ Record and keep evidence of meetings (agenda/minutes)
☐ Record attendance and member contributions
☐ Team reflection document
☐ Submit Peer Assessment required
☐ Summary and review of progress with module staff

Formatting Guidelines
1. Abstract
2. Introduction/Background/Historical Trends
a. Some literature (e.g., academic articles and market reports).
b. Historical trends based on the data provided.
3. Model Specification and Variable Description
a. Discussion of variables chosen – why? i.e. theoretical expectation.
b. Summary statistics of the variables.
c. Choice and rationale for an econometric model, e.g. regression equation.
d. Data diagnostics; issues with the variables; any transformation.
4. Results and Analysis
a. Step-by-step description/explanation of all regression model specification.
b. Model diagnostic tests across alternative specifications.
c. Choice of a specific model – statement and rationale for the choice.
d. Interpretation of regression output.
e. Explanation and discussion of the forecast.
5. Conclusion

Word Limit/Guidance and Penalty Applied The report should be rigorous and consistent with tools and techniques in the module. The word guide of the assignment is 2,500 words, excluding the abstract, content page, table/figure, footnote, reference and appendix. 4% of the total marks available for the piece of work will be deducted if the project is over a maximum of 2,750 words.

Referencing Style
Harvard Referencing
Guidance on Academic Misconduct (including using Turnitin practice area) The work you produce must be your own or that of members of your group if it is a group assessment.

You should ensure that the work you produce adheres to the University’s statement on academic integrity and to the regulations regarding academic misconduct (such as plagiarism and cheating). You can find information about this at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/internal/exams/Policies/exa-misconduct.aspx

You are encouraged to put a draft of your work through the Turnitin practice area to satisfy yourself that the work is your own original work. You can find this in your module area on Blackboard. To do this, click on the Academic Misconduct Assessment course in your Blackboard course drop down list and find the ‘Turnitin Practice Area’ in the left side column. Further information and support for how to use Turnitin and interpret originality reports is available under ‘Support for Students’ tab on Blackboard.

4. What Resources Might I Use to Prepare My Work?

• Lectures and Tutorials.
• Recommended Readings:
1. Papastamos, D., Matysiak, G., & Stevenson, S. (2015). Assessing the Accuracy and Dispersion of Real Estate Investment Forecasts. International Review of Financial Analysis, 42, 141 – 152.
2. Brounen, D., & Jennen, M. (2009). Local Office Rent Dynamics: A Tale of Ten Cities. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 39, 385 – 402.
3. Karakozova, O. (2004). Modelling and forecasting office returns in the Helsinki area, Journal of Property Research, 21, 51– 73.
• Textbooks:
1. Brooks, C. and Sotiris T. (2010). Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting. Cambridge University Press.
2. Brooks, C. (2019). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (4th Edition). Cambridge University Press.

While the data for the dependent variable (i.e., the office rental index) and some independent variables are provided, you can collect additional independent variables that you deem appropriate in the modelling. The maximum number of independent variables you can use in the report is “6”.

NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT USE THE DATASET FOR ANY OTHER PURPOSES THAN THIS ASSIGNMENT.

5. Submission and Late Submission Arrangements

Submission point located in Assessment folder on Module Blackboard site

Coursework submission procedure:
All coursework should be submitted electronically via Blackboard. Submission links will be available under ‘Assessment’ or ‘Assignment’ in the Blackboard Course menu for the module. To submit, click on ‘Assessment’ or ‘Assignment’ in the Blackboard course menu, find the relevant link, and follow the instructions to submit your coursework.

Please note that you will have the opportunity to submit more than once, in case of mistakes or errors; previous submissions of the assignment will be overwritten up until the due date and time. The final submission is the one that will be marked.

• You will be able to check the version uploaded during the process of submission. If you do not receive a digital receipt acknowledging successful submission please email pg-rep-admin@reading.ac.uk.
• Further information and support can be found on the ‘Blackboard Help (student)’ tab on Blackboard where you will find a detailed student guide on how to submit Turnitin assignments along with other guides.

Late Submission Penalty: ☒ The University standard penalties apply (see below):

• Where the piece of work is submitted after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): 10% of the total marks available for that piece of work will be deducted from the mark for each working day (or part thereof) following the deadline up to a total of five working days;
• Where the piece of work is submitted more than five working days after the original deadline (or any formally agreed extension to the deadline): a mark of zero will be recorded.

If you are having difficulties meeting the deadline due to illness or other extenuating circumstances, please see the ECF Guidance Pages for the steps that you need to take. If you have further queries regarding this process, please contact the Henley School Office.

If you are experiencing technical difficulties at the time of submission, please email pg-rep-admin@reading.ac.ukor visit the HBS Admin deck.

☐ Other: Click or tap here to enter text.

Plagiarism:
☒ The University’s standard policy on Academic Misconduct applies
☐ Other: Click or tap here to enter text.

6. Feedback Arrangements

Timing of feedback:
☒ Within 15 working days of submission deadline

☐ When examinations marks are released

☐ Other Click or tap here to enter text.

Type of feedback:
☒ Mark
☒ Individual Feedback
☐ Audio Feedback
☐ Breakdown of Mark

☐ Generic Feedback
☐ Comments written on the assessment
☐ Video Feedback
☐ Other: Click or tap here to enter text.

Location of Feedback:

☐ Blackboard
☐ RISIS

☒ Turnitin
☐ Other: Click or tap here to enter text.

Assessment Criteria Rubric – Postgraduate

Module Code: REMF37 Module Title: Quantitative Techniques Assessment Task: Project Academic Year: MSc 2022/2023

GRADE BANDS
Distinction Merit Pass Fail
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
(Indicative Weighting)
(70+) (60-69) (50-59) (0-49)
Criterion 1 (20%):
Visual and qualitative overview of the market segment, demonstrating an understanding of key economic events in relation to the property market
Almost complete appropriate qualitative discussion on the market overview with support of visual representations using graphs and charts.
Largely appropriate qualitative discussion on the market overview with some support of visual representations using a few graphs and charts. Sound qualitative discussion on the market overview with little support of visual representations using few graphs and charts. Limited qualitative discussion on the market overview with no support of visual representations.
Criterion 2 (30%):
Specification of a model and rationale for choosing variables whilst demonstrating underlying concepts and robustness checks

Great effort of data collection, along with excellent understanding of the data based on statistics derived from the data which informs the derivation of models with strong evidence of their robustness. Good effort of data collection, along with good understanding of the data based on statistics derived from the data which informs the derivation of models with good evidence of their robustness. Some effort of data collection, along with
sound understanding of the data based on statistics derived from the data which informs the derivation of models with little evidence of their robustness. Little effort of data collection, along with limited understanding of the data, no statistics derived, major mistakes in the derivation of models with no evidence of their robustness.
Criterion 3 (30%):
Communication and presentation of key arguments based on empirical findings Almost complete scrutiny of the evidence, ability to make logical and coherent arguments based on empirical findings. Generally good scrutiny of the evidence, ability to make logical and coherent arguments based on empirical findings Sound scrutiny of the evidence, little ability to make logical and coherent arguments based on empirical findings. Limited scrutiny of the evidence, little ability to make logical and coherent arguments based on empirical findings.
Criterion 4 (10%):
Evidence of research and reading relevant to the project
Excellent use of literature review, which extends beyond material introduced in the module. Good use of literature review, with little evidence of going much beyond material introduced in the module. Sound use of literature review, with little evidence of going much beyond material introduced in the module. Limited evidence of the literature review.
Criterion 5 (10%):
Clarity of organisation and structure
Competent execution of structure and organisation of report and appropriate use of language, fluency, grammar and complete references. Largely good presentation of structure and organisation of report and generally correct use of language, grammar and references. Sound presentation of structure, and organisation of report and reasonable use of language, grammar and incorrect references. Weak structure and organisation of report and limited use of appropriate language, grammar and limited or incorrect references.

Note: Student coursework must adhere to the University of Reading policy on Academic Misconduct.
Further information is available at: https://www.reading.ac.uk/exa-misconduct.aspx

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