Posted: October 20th, 2022

PROPOSED SOLUTIONS TO SAFETY CHALLENGES WITH THE ENTRY PERSONNEL IN THE BOOMING AVIATION INDUSTRY

PROPOSED SOLUTIONS TO SAFETY CHALLENGES WITH THE ENTRY PERSONNEL IN THE BOOMING AVIATION INDUSTRY

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Proposed Solutions to Safety Challenges with the Entry Personnel in the Booming Aviation Industry
Contents
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 4
1.1 Background Information 4
1.2 Problem Statement 9
1.3 Justification 10
1.4 Objectives 11
1.5 Research Questions 11
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 12
Introduction 12
2.1 Could the Growth Trend in the Aviation Industry Cause Challenges in the Future? 13
2.2 The Current Attraction, Selection, Training and Retaining of Professionals is Irresponsive to the Industry’s Growth Rate 17
2.3 Why Did People Lose Interest in Careers in the Aviation Industry? 21
2.4 Amendments Needed to Improve Aviation Safety When It Comes to the Entry of the New Personnel 23
2.5 Synthesis and Analysis 26
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 28
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 30
CONCLUSION 40
pilot-deficit [Accessed 25 May 2016] 45

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background Information
With increased volumes of global trade, global integration and global transport, communication has continued to increase and is projected to continue increasing in the future. In 2014, the value of global trade was $16 trillion: globally, trade and integration create a need for effective transport and communication (Alfaro L, Antràs P, Chor D, Conconi P & National Bureau of Economic Research 2015). Transport refers to the movement of goods from one place to another. On the other hand, communication refers to transmission of information from one from one place to the other. In some instances, transport and communication may overlap, especially when the information that should be transmitted is to be passed through the word of mouth. This means that a person who should transmit the information should move from one place to the other and deliver the information needed. Such a person becomes a messenger.
In the global movement of goods and people, the foremost means of transport are water, air and land transport. Land transport is severely limited into continental land masses and is used to compliment the other two. Water (sea and ocean) transport is the most important when it comes to the movement of cargo around the globe. This is given the fact a large percentage of earth’s surface is covered with thee oceans and seas. On the other hand, air transport is the most important when it comes to transportation of people. This means is preferred for transporting people because it is fast and comfortable, which enables people to arrive at certain destinations faster, and with far less fatigue as compared to land or sea transport. Additionally, a high speed means that relatively less time is used for travel while the rest of time is used for people engage in other social and economic activities.
According to the Air transport action group (ATAG), 2014, there were over 37 million flights that were planned for 2014 globally: this was 127% of flights that took place in 2013. On average, it was projected that there would be an average of close to 102 500 flights scheduled for each day in 2014. This was a rise from an average of 99726 flights taking place in each day of 2013. The year of 2014 was the first year in history to experience a record of over 100,000 flights per day. By the end of 2015, there were over 49870 routes for air transport throughout the globe. The frequency for service for every route varied from numerous times in one day to a few times each year.
According to International Air Travel Association (IATA), the flight frequency and the number of routes for air transport will continue to increase, at least for the foreseeable future (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). This is so because air transport is projected to continue increasing in the developing markets, such as China, Africa, and the Middle East is projected to participate (UAE participates in ICAO 2nd next generation of aviation professionals symposium / wam.com. 2014). In addition to the number of flights, the average number of people using air transport will also increase. This is because larger passenger aircrafts are made and more of their seats are occupied. The average amounts of incomes among people in the developing markets are increasing, such that a larger number of them can afford air transport. 79% of seats in airliners were occupied in mid-2014 as compared to 40% of trains’, 60% of busses’ and 30% of cars’ (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). In 2014, $273 billion litres of aircraft fuel were used by the airline industry: in that year, per litre cost was $0.77. As of 2015, the number of commercial airliners was 1400 and who owned and operated around 25 330 aircraft units.
Another important factor that is likely to contribute to the growth of air transport is the introduction and growth of the low-cost airlines. Several low-cost airlines have been introduced and grown since the last decade of the 20th century. The low-cost airlines/ low-cost carrier (LCC) have lower rates, but are less comfortable. Nevertheless, they are preferred by a large number of people who are not interested in comfort and who have less money. Among the most prominent LCC globally include Southwest Airlines, Easyjet, Aer Lingus and Ryanair among others. These airlines are preferred as they serve routes that would not be profitable for large airlines. They are also preferred by people with small amounts of disposable incomes. The number of passengers using LCC grew by 40% throughout the 5 years, leading to 2000: in addition, the number of LCC grew by 9% in the same period (Pilot Careers News 2015). They registered significant growth in the 21st century (Pilot Careers News 2015).
The number of aircrafts procured has been increasing. This means that the number of the trained personnel to operate, repair, as well as serve occupants of these vehicles is needed. This is, in addition, to the trained personnel to maintain airfields, operate communication equipment, as well as respond to various emergencies. In the year 2009, two of the largest manufacturers of passenger aircrafts received hundreds of orders for their products. In 2009, Boeing and Airbus received only 573 orders, which rose to 3346 in the close of 2015(Airbus and Boeing: aircraft orders 2003-2014 / statista.com 2016). Noteworthy, these two manufacturers are only the largest of the five major aircraft manufacturers globally. By February of 2016, Boeing had delivered 5700 aircrafts, which were about 1100 less than Airbus (Airbus and Boeing 2016). Boeing projected 4.9% expansion of aviation traffic, and that an average of 38050 jets would be introduced in the air transport by 2034, which would be a growth of over 200% (Boeing 2015). In that case, the rise in the number of aircraft orders means there will be a corresponding rise in demand for the aviation personnel. More specialists will be needed to operate these vehicles, as well as maintain them and their systems.
It is projects that there will be an annual average rate of 4.1 in the airliners’ passengers (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). This growth will be driven by the Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Boeing observes that the number at which new pilots and technicians are getting trained is lower than the expansion of this industry. By considering the rate of attrition of these specialists, this industry may experience a prolonged shortage of needed specialists (Airbus and Boeing: aircraft orders 2003-2014 / statista.com 2016). This is likely to be made worse by the fact that many airliners are rapidly expanding their aircraft fleets. Therefore, there is a very high likelihood of a high demand and low supply of these specialists. To avoid the losses that may arise when airlines cannot get enough adequately trained pilots and other technicians, some of these airlines may end up lowering the educational and training requirements needed in the recruitment of these specialists. They would do this in order to ensure there is enough manpower to operate their airplanes and avert possible losses.
Although this is an economically sound move, it is flawed in that it could compromise the safety of passengers, as well as aircrafts. Adequate minimum training and experience are important for ensuring that all risks, especially the ones associated by human error and the lack of experience, are avoided. Policy makers, airline owners, passengers and members of the public need contribute to this discourse to see how possible loss of life and property could be averted due to the occurrences described above. The aviation industry has experienced several disasters in the recent past, all of which led to fatalities. These include flight 214 of the Asian airlines that crashed in SFO, flight 447 of AirFrance and the recent flight MS804 of the Egyptian airline. Although some of the circumstances leading to these crashes could not be avoided, it is imperative to identify the ones that could be avoided and the measures that could mitigate their effects insofar as personnel training and experience are concerned.
The aviation safety professionals who can also be the members of the flight deck crews are left wondering what could be done to ensure safety of passengers and aircrafts in various circumstances, including the ones mentioned above. It is recognized that experience is important for the minimization of errors in execution of tasks. Proper background training and skills are also of great significance. When safety of people is in question, the highest attainable experience becomes crucial. Pilots, air traffic controllers, as well as aero plane mechanists need to have adequate experience to minimize the instances of human error that could have potentially fatal consequences. Wide experience can play a major role and in various ways to improve flight safety. However, as seen earlier, this could be hard to achieve. On the other hand, human errors are not the only causes of aircraft accidents. For this reason, there is a need to always take steps to ensure that various aspects of flight safety are taken into careful consideration to avert or minimize the instances of possible loss of life and property.
1.2 Problem Statement
Previously, this industry has registered robust growth in terms of aircraft purchased, the number of passengers in a day, and the number of the routes served among others. On the other hand, the number of specialists needed to operate, maintain and control these sophisticated machines is not growing proportionately. For instance, Boeing projects that there will be a shortage of highly qualified and experienced airliner pilots and flight technicians by the year 2034 (Airbus and Boeing: aircraft orders 2003-2014 / statista.com 2016). This is because the increase in the number of these specialists has been and is projected to be sluggish, and does not match the number of passenger aircrafts being manufactured and sold. Due to the important role that these professionals play, especially when they are well trained and have adequate experience, it is important to research and find out how the airline companies will react to this occurrence. It is essential to look for possible solutions to a case where the airline companies may choose to employ specialists that have little or no experience.
Much research work has been done to look into how the aviation industry will develop in the future. Papers have also been written concerning how the increase in the highly skilled and experienced pilots and aviation technicians has been sluggish. There is a need to look into possible solutions for various safety challenges that may result from inexperienced entry personnel in the aviation industry. Importantly, there is also an urgent need to investigate the underlying cause of sluggish increment in the number of the highly trained and highly experienced professionals, as well as to propose possible solutions to this undesirable trend.
Various organizations, such as the Boeing Company, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), etc., admit there is a problem in that the increase in the number of the highly trained and experienced flight specialists has been slow. ICAO and IATA among other organizations stress that there is an urgent need to rapidly attract more aviation specialists in the larger air transport industry. The project known as Next Generation of Aviation Professionals (NGAP) was introduced in 2009 (ICAO n.d). There is a need to investigate the safety consequences of such a project, as well as propose possible solutions.
1.3 Justification
Perfect air safety is a state that may never be attained; however, it is imperative for all players to ensure that all the instances of loss of life, aircraft and property are avoided. This would make the air transport more profitable and might also have many positive economic implications to economies. Aviation safety has many dimensions and variables that need to be regulated and followed efficiently to reduce all the possible risks. Various challenges facing aviation safety are dynamic. For this reason; there is a sustained need to project the possible future challenges and possible solutions.
With the current and ever increasing investment to increase aviation safety, there is also a need to invest enough resources in manpower. Improvement in technology alone may not significantly increase aviation safety. It is significant to note that aviation safety has been improving: this means much investment should be focused on making this form of transport even safer.
Such organizations as ICAO, IATA and IFLAPA among others have given much attention to the selection, training and retention of aviation professionals. This is due to the recognition of importance of safety, and how the industry has gain pride in improving safety.
The researcher chose this topic because of passion for the improvement in aviation safety, as well as the need to match the advancement in safety technology with proper training and skills for future safety and reliability. The researcher has successfully gone through the Multi-crew Pilot’s License, which is a training program established by IATA and ICAO. The researcher has trained under new training programmes and is interested in looking for the ways to improve aviation safety. The researcher tries to search for future scenarios for pilots, aviation specialists, air traffic controllers and technicians that could adversely affect safety if not adequately considered and responded to.
1.4 Objectives
• To explore the current state and projected growth of the aviation industry;
• To investigate the aviation safety challenges of having low experience personnel in a fast-growing industry.
• To analyse the impact of not considering various safety challenges / concerns.
• To explore different ways to mitigate the risks associated with such safety challenges.
1.5 Research Questions
• Is the aviation industry facing safety challenges when looking at the current and future growth rate?
• Are the current attraction, selection, training and retaining of the aviation personnel appropriate for the current industry growth rate?
• Why did the people lose their interest in careers in the aviation industry?
• What amendments can be implemented to improve aviation safety when it comes to the entry of new personnel?

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
Introduction
This section will seek to put the subject of this research in the context of various materials that have been compiled and published concerning the current and the projected trends in the aviation industry. Additionally, such materials have also looked into various issues the industry has faced, as well as those it is expected to face in the short to medium run. As seen in the introduction, aircraft manufactures and various regulatory bodies, such as the IATA, ICAO and IFLAPA, have all projected that the aviation industry will continue to expand. In fact, Boeing has projected that the carriers will expand by 100% in terms of aircraft between 2014 and 2034 aircraft (Boeing current market outlook 2015/Beoing.com 2016). On the other hand, these organisations agree that the number of professionals joining this field is reducing. This points to an undesirable situation where there might be very few professionals operating very many machines, if nothing is done to reverse the situation. To counter this, the available professionals may be required to work for long hours, or the industry may absorb untrained or less experienced professionals. In any case, the two scenarios may compromise the safety of the aviation industry. Even if there has been a lot of technological advancement in the field, especially as far as making aviation safer, technology might not replace the need for the properly trained professionals a with adequate experience in the field in the short or medium run. Various scholars, researchers, specialists and organisations have compiled and published a lot of materials that relate to the subject of this research. This section looks into how these materials illuminate and enrich the discourse about the subjects of the current research.
2.1 Could the Growth Trend in the Aviation Industry Cause Challenges in the Future?
The aviation industry has been growing rapidly (Airbus and Boeing: aircraft orders 2003-2014 / statista.com 2016). The number of routes, airlines as well as product categories has been increasing, with the most recent innovation being LCC among others. On the other hand, the number of pilots joining the profession has been low. This has happened in the backdrop of increasing average age for pilots (Elwell 2015). For instance, in the USA, the average age of pilots is 50 years (Elwell 2015). This means that these professionals could be retiring soon while a good number of them could be unable to fly as their ages increase. The number of pilots joining the profession has been very low. Airlines have to offer hefty entry salaries and bonuses in order to attract new pilots. In addition to the fact that this might have negative implications of lowering margins for these firms, it also means that there could be inadequate pilots and other professionals in the following decade.
The reduction in the number of new people joining the profession has been occasioned by the fact that it takes relatively long time to train pilots, it is also expensive, and the career is hierarchical (Elwell 2015). In addition, this has been aggravated by recent unfortunate occurrences, such as the September 11 attack and the 2007/2008 economic downturn. Elwell (2015) projects that there will be a severe shortage of professionals in the next two decades since the number of the trained and experienced flight personnel has been reducing. It is significant to note that the competition for these professionals has increased and a shortage has already been experienced by some regional carriers (Elwell 2015). Therefore, even if the aviation industry would not grow in the future, there will still be a shortage of professionals if certain steps are not taken to increase the number of these professionals. There were about 610, 500 pilots in the US in 1980 who held private, commercial or airline certificates (Elwell 2015). The number had reduced to 432, 140 by the year 2014 (Elwell 2015). The falling trend had also replicated in the number of private pilots and students training in aviation from 557, 312 in 1980 to a meager 240, 000 by 2014. The trend is worrying and indicates that the number of private pilots and students fell by more than 50% (Elwell 2015). In the US, there have been some aspects that have increased the problem for professionals. For instance, after the crash of flight 3407 of Colgan Air back in 2009, the US Congress passed the laws such that the co-pilots in an airline company would require 1,500 flight hours, which was a rise from previous 250 (Pasztor2009). The reasoning was that these hours would give them adequate experience and avert possible accidents in the future. However, this rule would drastically reduce the number of the qualified co-pilots, in addition to increasing the cost of training by close to $100000 (Elwell 2015). The cost and increase in the flight hours among other reasons have led to a reduction in the number of people wishing to join various professions in aviation. Smith (2016) states that there has been an acute shortage of airline pilots in the US. The author cites the recent case where the Republican Airways filed a bankruptcy protection case and emphasized the lack of pilots (Smith 2016). Additionally, the airline has cancelled some of its flights due to shortage of aircraft.
The case has not been any different in Europe and throughout the world. According to Osborne (2013), there is a looming shortage of airline pilots in the world. There were around 150,000 pilots globally in 2013 and a quarter of which were expected to retire in the next decade (Osborne 2013). As a result, there is a need to replace the retiring professionals, as well as to cater for expansion in the industry. According to CTC Aviation, which is a globally recognized institution that has been trained pilots for Easyjets, British Airways and Qatar Airline, 235,000 new pilots will be needed by 2020 (Osborne 2013). It is stated that the shortage has already felt and will continue to worsen if corrective measures are not taken in the near future (Osborne 2013).
The case has been the same for flight technicians, controllers, engineers and other professionals. The shortage has already been felt, and the number of these professionals are constantly reducing. Considering the projected growth in the aviation industry, the shortage may even be more pronounced in the future as airline companies continue to order new aircrafts while the number of people getting into the profession reduces. The undesirable trend of reducing the number of trainees and professionals has also been felt in Asia. Airlines have had problems having the number of professionals they need. Park (2016) states that in addition to the already existing shortage in flight professionals in Asia, there is a high likelihood that the severity of the shortage will increase in future. This is because Asia Pacific has experienced two decades of rapid economic development, which has led to an exponential expansion in the size of the middle class and hence a great increase in the disposable incomes among members of this group. As a result, this group is now among the leading consumers of the flight services. In this region, LCCs have also increased and developed, which has been fueled by market liberalization in several of Asian countries. For this reason, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier stated that Asia would need 200,000 pilots in the next 20 years (Park 2016). According to this CEO, the region had 65, 000 pilots in 2016 (Park 2016). Asia has seen tremendous growth in the demand for air transport. This has been occasioned by two decades of rapid economic growth, leading to expansion in the middle class and hence a significant rise of their purchasing power (Park 2016). Over the same period, China has developed to become the second largest economy globally, which has increased the number of the Chinese who are willing and are able to afford air transport. Chinese carriers have also developed over this time period, but the number of professionals has continued to decrease. With the projected growth in air transport in the region, there is a looming shortage of professionals if satisfactory counteractive actions are ignored.
Asia does not only have the developing markets that have experienced a decline in flight professions. The Japanese market has also been affected in an adverse way (Minter 2015). Minter (2015) describes how Japanese airlines have experienced shortages of professionals in the backdrop of the booming industry in the last few years. The demand for air travels has consistently increased, and so has the returns, which has attracted many players. The industry has been largely profitable occasioning the growth in terms of airlines, routes, and aircrafts. However, this has not been the case with professionals. It should be noted that Vanilla Airline in Japan canceled a total of over 150 flights for June 2014 while Peach Airline announced a cancellation of a total of 2000 flights between May and October 2014 (Jiji 2014). Jetstar Airline postponed its planned expansion, especially in terms of the number of flights (Jiji 2014). These three firms cited severe shortage of professionals, especially pilots and captains (Jiji 2014).
Generally, there has been a shortage of the well-trained and experienced professionals in the aviation industry across various markets, as seen in the paragraphs above. However, there has been a projected growth in the industry that is already booming. This shows that the global market is very likely to experience an even worse shortage of professionals in the near future. The only way to avert this or reduce its effects would be possible if various players, regulators and the governments come up with a sustainable way of ensuring that the numbers of professionals increase at a high rate.
2.2 The Current Attraction, Selection, Training and Retaining of Professionals is Irresponsive to the Industry’s Growth Rate

There are a number of issues that make selection, training and retention for careers in the aviation industry to be particularly less attractive: chief among them is economics. For many decades, flying has been seen as a preserve of the rich and so has been the large number of careers involved. This has been due to the fact that flying was once very expensive and only the wealthy minority could afford to fly. Over that time period, the number of aircraft remained very low. As a result, investment in the capital and infrastructure for training facilities for professionals in this area was consistently very low. Consequently, the per capita cost of training in these careers has been very high. As a result, it has been far above the reach of the majority in many populations. For this reason, many people who would be interested in training to become pilots and flight controllers among other professionals are discouraged by the high costs of training and opt for more affordable careers.
People aspiring to become pilots may be required to fully finance their training, which makes it very unattractive in terms of cost. The training becomes practically unaffordable to the majority of youths looking for career paths. The cost factor is exemplified by the fact that the pilots are also required to finance their own efforts to accumulate the flight hours, which has further pushed the cost above the reach of many.
Another factor that has contributed to the reduction of professionals is the increase in the minimum flight hours required for one to become a co-pilot. This issue is specific to the pilots and is more pronounced in the USA. After a Colgan flight accident in New York in which 50 people died, the US Congress has passed legislation requiring that pilot trainees have at least 1500 flight hours before they can be considered for a pilot position: this was a rise from previous 250 hours (Silk2016). The legislation passed attaches much importance to the experience in preventing various accidents and fatalities when they occur. However, this has served to make the profession less attractive since aspiring pilots will need more time and money to attain this requirement.
There are other factors that make a career in the aviation industry particularly challenging. Despite the fact that some airline pilots may work for as few as between 8 and 14 days every month, these professionals do not necessarily spend the rest of their times with their families or at home. Much of the remaining time is spent in the offices or training and Assessment centres. It is imperative to note that careers in the aviation industry require high levels of physical and mental fitness. This is highly emphasized for pilots and captains. The safety of the all the passengers, luggage and multibillion dollar aircrafts depend on the physical, mental and emotional fitness of these professionals. Large passenger and cargo aircrafts also fly above people, infrastructure and buildings and are likely to cause extensive damage to the third party in case of an accident.
In many airlines, captains are required to pass around two physical tests a year: while commercial pilots are required to pass one annually. Due to the high amount of physical health needed for any pilot and captain, pilot’s careers may be terminated if they are diagnosed with health issues. Both practising and aspiring professionals are needed to carefully control their drugs and alcohol intake. This is particularly important since alcohol may impair a pilot’s judgment, thus leading to accidents and fatalities. Criminal history as well as a history of drug and alcohol problems may also disqualify one from training or practicing as a pilot/captain.
Although all of the above factors have served to make a career in the aviation industry less attractive for new entrants, some of them are very important and may not be reviewed. The safety of the passengers, pilots and all the crew members, as well as the aircraft and the third parties demand a consistent ability of all concerned professionals to be in a sober mental state. It is also paramount for these professionals to be composed at all times and be in the right physical, mental and emotional state. For this reason, the regulations demanding the holistic health of these professionals are important in spite of their shortfalls.
With the growth of the global economy, significant numbers of airlines have been able to succeed in the aviation industry, which has made it competitive. For this reason, the large airlines can be pushed out of the markets by the upcoming ones. In addition, their market share can also be reduced by others and LCCs. This has worked to reduce the actual and perceived job security that was once provided by these airlines to professionals in the industry. Importantly, the skills required by many flight professionals, such as pilots, captains, flight engineers, flight controllers among others, are very specific and may not be useful in other sectors of the economy. A significant number of people may shy away from developing their career in aviation due to the combination of factors, such as reducing job security, increased time away from home, and high cost of training among others.
Airlines, such as the Pan Am, Ansset and Swissair among others, failed, throwing the careers of their workers into uncertainty. Although the professional skills used in one airline are easily transferred to another, this is not always the case with the employees’ ranks. For professionals who seek employment elsewhere, a significant number of them are employed at the lowest levels. A number of captains from the collapsed large airlines get jobs as flight engineers in other companies. Others are unable to secure employment in the remaining large airlines and may end up working in the regional carriers or LCCs and receiving far less payments and benefits. The general protocol in most of the airlines is that prior experience in other airlines is not considered. A captain from another airline and a fresh graduate has equal chances of promotion. This may be seen as a demotion and serves to make a career in the aviation industry less attractive.
If the above challenges are not responded to in an effective way, the number of captains, pilots, flight engineers and flight controllers among other professionals may continue to reduce. The consequences of decline in the numbers of these professionals may not be desirable, especially in the backdrop of exponential growth in the industry. Still, the industry is expected to experience even higher growth. Despite all the above challenges, interventionism may not be desirable, especially in terms of sustainability. For this reason, only the players have the ability to provide a sustainable solution to the issue of professionals’ shortage. Learning institutions, aircraft manufacturers, airlines and various regulating bodies need to come up with sustainable ways of ensuring that the industry has adequate number of the highly trained/experienced professionals for profitability and safety.
2.3 Why Did People Lose Interest in Careers in the Aviation Industry?
The loss of the interest in careers in the aviation industry has been occasioned by a mix of factors. On the one end, these careers have been seen as being meant for the individuals who are intellectually gifted. As a result, this has made significant percentages of the populations to ignore them. On the other hand, some careers have come up that some people are considered more competitive or even better than those in the aviation industry.
In the US, one factor that has made people lose their interest in careers in aviation is the reduction of flight schools (Liton n.d.). Between 1990 and 2012, the total number of flight schools in the US and Canada reduced by 700; in the 1990s, there were 2400 aviation schools, a number that reduced to 1700 (Liton n.d.). Due to this, many young people have failed to develop the enthusiasm that would be generated by the presence of such institutions. Although a significant number of pilots are trained by the military, a good percentage of them remain in the military, which may not Help in averting a crisis in the civilian airlines. There is a need to restore flight schools and even establish new ones as their absence may make careers in aviation to appear unimportant.
Another reason why people have continuously lose interest in careers in aviation is the cost. It takes lots of time and resources before one finally becomes a flight engineer and later on a pilot, a captain, and other careers. Although the returns may be worthwhile, there are other careers that people feel that can generate them adequate income in a shorter time and allow them to serve their societies in different ways. Although the military has been an alternative through which people can train and later join civilian aviation, it is not adequate to cater for the rising demand for airline pilots. Still, a large number of pilots that are trained in the military opt to remain there.
Other careers, like arts such as music, movie acting, and modelling and tech innovation among others, have also served to introduce the ways through which youths can earn high returns, serve their societies, and become popular. As a result, this has served to draw them away from the careers that were traditionally associated with high returns and glamorous lives. The continuous innovation and improvement of computers and hand-held smart devices have been very captivating to young people. There have been almost limitless applications to which these devices can be put into. As a result, a large number of young people across the world have opted for careers in computer sciences, computer engineering and programming among others. The results have been impressive as some have been able to build large companies dealing with innovative tech products. An example of this may include the story of Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Twitter among others. In addition, some innovative start-ups have had their value appreciate to millions of US dollars over a short time, which has attracted the youth to invest in this area.
Although careers in aviation are still among the most prestigious globally, there are others that compete favourably with them. In terms of time and resource investment, careers in aviation are relatively less competitive than those that may have similar or better returns and prestige. This is despite the fact that careers in aviation are important as aviation play a crucial role in global transport, communication, and the entire economy at large.
2.4 Amendments Needed to Improve Aviation Safety When It Comes to the Entry of the New Personnel
It should be noted that the shortage of the well-trained and well-experienced professionals in the aviation industry is evident. Several airlines have been forced to stop or reschedule some of their flights. Others have also postponed plans for expansion. This has happened in the backdrop of reducing the number of new entrants in the profession. With the current and projected rapid expansion in the industry, it means that emergency programs may be implemented to avert a possible crisis. Players in this industry have already been taking measures, such as attracting and training more people. Additionally, legal and procedural issues may be reviewed to ensure that new trainees are not required to have as extensive experience as their predecessors.
In response to the looming shortage of flight professionals in the industry, various measures have been undertaken to find out how to deal with the above-mentioned problem. For instance, an organization named AeroProfessional carried out a survey to find out how airlines were planning to cope with the looming shortage. In this survey, over 76% of airlines were studied, and all of them indicated that they were planning to hire additional pilots by 2017 (Pilot Careers News 2015). However, these intentions do not focus on the root problem, which is a severely few number of pilots graduating from the institutions. For this reason, their intention does not make an emphasis on increasing the number of the people training to become pilots and professionals. This is despite the fact that the majority of people surveyed indicated that there were very few skilled flight professionals. For LCCs, the skill shortage was even more pronounced since the pay and benefits in this category could not favorably compete with those of large carriers. Recruitment drives by the airlines could probably lower the bar if the required numbers were to be obtained in the industry that had a skills deficit. Conversely, if background qualifications for aspiring pilots were reduced, there would be a need to ensure that this does not compromise the safety of passengers, aircrafts, and third parties.
In the study by AeroProfessional, about 1/3 of the pilots surveyed indicated that the cost of training for pilots was too high; one pays an amount close to $140,000 to train as a pilot (Careers News 2015). This cost was punitive and made a career in aviation to be out of reach for a number of young people. In other instances, it made a career in aviation non-competitive as compared to other careers. While the military and some LCCs offered ab-initio training, this number is not sufficient to bridge the deficit and cater for exponential growth in the industry. In the early stages of growth in the aviation industry, airlines could finance the training of many specialists, which was important in ensuring that there were enough specialists. This would change from the 1980s and the 1990s when many people funded their training programs to become specialists in the aviation industry. Over time, this has proven unsustainable, and while the military and some LLC have taken it upon themselves to fund the training programs, there is a need for other players to increase efforts to make training programs more affordable and competitive. Aircraft manufacturers, airlines, regulators and entrepreneurs need to find the ways to bring down the cost of training so that many people can afford to take up careers in this industry. Some airlines have increased the entry level pay for pilots and other professionals to encourage people to take up careers in these areas. While this is important, it might not help people who cannot afford to pay for training in the first place.
As seen earlier, the US-Pilots need to have a minimum of 1500 flying hours in order to be allowed to fly. This may be particularly hard for some trained pilots since they may be unable to fulfill this condition. Clocking all these hours in a commercial airline is not easy as some training institutions may lack the on-the-job chances. According to a survey by AeroProfessional, about 15% of pilot respondents indicated that despite having been trained, they could not get an opportunity to have 1500 hours (Pilot Careers News2015). Additionally, about 10% of pilots are actively seeking for various opportunities to fly for the first time (first role) (Pilot Careers News2015). Despite the heavy investment in training, their expertise cannot be used to alleviate the current shortage of pilots. One the other hand, the financially able ones should pay to fly so as to gain these required hours. This has had the effect of further increasing the cost of training as a significant number of pilots are unable to afford it. Altogether, this means that a number of trained pilots might not have the necessary experience so that they can later on help mitigate against the effects of the sharp decline in the number of pilots.
Ultimately, airlines will need to look for all employable personnel at all cost. With the current severe skill shortages, as well as the retirement of experienced professionals, young and mostly inexperienced professionals will be hired. On the other hand, the need for safety of passengers, aircrafts and third parties will always be emphasized. It is significant to note that there has been a remarkable increase in aviation safety, which demands further improvement. There is, therefore, a need for concerted efforts to ensure that new entrants are able to gain the experience needed over a very short time. Importantly, the barriers that exist in terms of costs and legislation need to be removed. For this reason, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, industry regulators and entrepreneurs need to come up with the ways of lowering the costs of training flight professionals such that the profession can be competitive. From a legislative perspective, laws need to be reviewed so that an undue emphasis is not laid on the length of flight hours, but the experience earned. For instance, training for pilots and flight engineers can be varied such that it is cheaper, and the opportunity to accumulate flight hours is incorporated in the training program. It is also important for airlines and flight training schools to ensure that the persons who undergo pilot training have an opportunity to accumulate flight hours without incurring inhibitory costs.
The increase of the requisite flight hours from 250 to 1500 has not led to any marked increase in flight safety (Pilot Careers News 2015). This is despite the fact that it has made careers as flight engineers, pilots and captains expensive, less affordable, and less competitive. Such legislation needs to be reviewed. The number of flight hours each pilot should have needs to be delinked with the experience obtained. Instead, there is a need to develop special tests to be used to determine the amount of the experience obtained. This will aid in reducing an undue emphasis on flight hours.
2.5 Synthesis and Analysis
As seen throughout the literature review, the aviation industry has experienced remarkable growth in the recent past. This growth has occurred in terms of the aircraft purchased, the number of routes served, and the frequency as well as introduction of new players, the most notable of which is LCC. On the other hand, the increase in the number of professionals needed to take up roles in the industry has not been proportionate. The industry is, therefore, experiencing a severe shortage of professionals, such as flight controllers, engineers, pilots, and captains among others. The literature also indicates that the industry is projected to greatly expand in the short and medium run. On the other hand, the shortage of professionals is projected to increase as the average age of the serving professionals increase. It is naturally expected that large numbers of them will retire in the foreseeable future while a significant number of them may become unable to serve for reasons associated with advanced age. Thus, the current shortage is expected to increase unless certain measures are taken to ensure adequate numbers of young people are attracted to start careers in aviation.
Still, the literature review indicates that there are some aspects that have made careers in aviation unattractive or less attractive as compared to other. Among such factors is the sheer cost of training in most of them. The amount of money required for pilot training is in the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars which is out of reach to a significant proportion of the youthful population. In addition to this prohibitory amount, large numbers of flight hours are required before one is permitted to apply as a pilot. This is also inhibitory. It is crucial to note that not all trained pilots get opportunities to get enough flight hours, which may force some to pay to fly. This has made careers in aviation to partly belong to the financially affluent class. The financial investment and the much time needed have made careers in aviation less competitive.
In addition, the advent of computers, the internet and the digital/social space has created a group of careers that have been very competitive for the youth. For various reasons, many young people have curved career opportunities around computers, the internet, and the digital space. Opportunities in these areas are less expensive as compared to some careers in aviation. In addition, the time investment may also be lower. These careers also provide a high level of autonomy to the young people and the returns are also competitive. The autonomy found in careers in this area is almost limitless as people can get considerably high returns, a fair chance of career growth, as well as unparalleled opportunities for innovation. There have been large globally recognized tech-companies and rapidly appreciating tech startups. Additionally, the sense of job security that was once associated with careers in aviation has been eroded in a great way. This has been occasioned by the failure of some large airlines survive over a long time. All these factors have served to make careers in aviation appear less competitive in terms of time and resource investment, the long-term career growth, and opportunities for innovation among others.
To make careers in aviation attractive, affordable and competitive, players and regulators need to develop the ways of lowering the cost of training. There is also an urgent need to ensure that all those who train as pilots are given affordable opportunities to acquire the required flight hours to be copilots. There is also a need to shift emphasis from the length of time to the actual practical knowledge obtained by pilot trainees. Still, an increase in the minimum flight hours required for trainees may need to be reviewed.
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
This section was dedicated to finding the data that was needed to effectively respond to the research questions and therefore attain the objectives of this research. Due to the nature of the research, all the objectives could be obtained effectively using qualitative approach. As seen in the introduction section, the research did not deal with hypothesis testing. Instead, varying views and from various individuals and institutions needed to be collected. After the data has been collected, its analysis was conducted qualitatively. This would be suitable to effectively respond to all the research questions and arrive at a conclusion and hence achieve the objectives of this research.
In this research, the primary and secondary sources of information were utilized. This was important to tap from the advantages of the two classes of information. For instance, primary sources of data were seen as being firsthand information. Additionally, they allowed the researcher an opportunity to seek clarification. On the other hand, secondary sources of information were cheap and convenient. Secondary sources were also analyzed, which allowed the researcher to make a better sense of the data.
The primary sources utilized for the present research include semi-structured and structured interviews where the researcher called selected airlines, aviation regulators and flight training schools and asked for required information. The researcher utilized phone calls and video calls. These interviews were conducted majorly to authenticate the information collected through secondary sources. Primary data was also collected through the use of an open question survey. This mode was preferred over closed question surveys because the research was non statistical in nature. Moreover, an open-ended survey enabled the researcher to obtained additional information that was not asked for but contributed in an important way to the discourse of the research.
Secondary sources of information formed the core of the data that was utilized in the current research. These sources of information were more suited for this research since it was descriptive in nature. Consequently, the researcher was able to obtain a wide range of information from individual and institution authors. Being a descriptive research, facts, figures and illustrations from various secondary sources could be analyzed, and the outcomes could be compiled in a continuous prose.
The major secondary sources used for this research included previous research works related to the topic, online statistical publications, reports, and journal articles among others. Documents and reports from the aviation industry regulators, such as the ICAO and IATA among others, were also utilized. Books, journal articles and online resources that relate to the industry, especially the aviation safety and the contribution of adequately trained and experienced personnel, were also explored.
The researcher used a mix of literature search and interviews and surveys. The researcher went through a wide range of previously published material to look for the data to respond to all the research questions. In addition, the researcher looked for more information that could enrich the discourse of this research and broaden the perspective of the research conclusion. The research mostly focused on the recent, current and projected trends in the growth of the aviation industry. The data collected covered the period between 2000 and 2015. The materials that project the growth of the industry up to 2034 were also sought. The researcher analyzed the secondary sources of information to find the trend in an increase in the number of aviation professionals over the study period.
After the collection of information from the secondary sources, the researcher used primary sources of information for verification purposes. The researcher utilized phone and video interviews to seek views concerning the information collected from secondary sources. Additionally, the open-ended surveys were also applied to gain more information.
After all the required information was collected, the researcher was able to respond to the research question. The researcher’s finding were compiled and analyzed in the research and analysis section. This would form the basis for arriving at the research conclusion and hence attaining of research objectives.
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
As seen throughout the research, the aviation industry has experienced significant growth in the recent past. The number of airlines, routes and the frequency of service of these routes have tremendously grown. This has been occasioned by general growth in the global economy, which has increased income levels, making it affordable for a larger number of people to fly. A large number of LCCs has also been established, which has made aviation more affordable. The emerging markets, such as China, South East Asia, the Middle East and Africa have registered most growth in this area. Major aircraft manufacturers, such as Airbus and Boeing, project that the aviation industry will continue to expand; such that the number of aircraft used in 2034 will be double the number in 2014 (Major manufacturers of civil transport aircraft / aviationknowledge.com. 2016).
As seen in the introduction and the literature review sections, the increase in the number of professionals has not been in tandem with the growth in the industry. Due to various reasons, the growth in the aviation industry has outstripped the growth of flight professionals. Consequently, the significant number of airlines has experienced shortages of flight professionals. Flight controllers, engineers, pilots and captains have been in short supply across the world. The US, Europe and Asia have experienced a reduction in the number of these professionals relative to the growth in the industry. In the recent past, the largest of the airlines have been able to use their large financial abilities to attract these professionals and hence have not been significantly affected by the shortage. However, smaller airlines with less disposable incomes have already been affected by this shortage. With the increasing average age of pilots and other professionals coupled with the reduction in the young people taking up careers in aviation, the current shortage will continue. The shortage may even be more pronounced in the future as the industry continues to develop.
To avert this shortage that may have undesirable consequences to the aviation industry, global transport and global economy players in the industry are seeking for the ways to reverse the current shortage and avert a larger one in future. Many of them are looking into the root cause of the problem. The shortage of the highly trained and highly experienced professionals has been occasioned by low pay, job insecurity and increase in time between the training and the time when professionals finally get an opportunity to work for a major airline. As seen earlier, pilot training can cost as high as over $100,000 while the entry rate is only $20000 annually (Elwell 2015). Due to the rise of more competitive careers, reduction in job security and perceived increasing occupational hazard for careers in aviation, many young people are opting for careers in other industries.
To avoid the looming shortage, the industry players and regulators are now taking measures to increase the number of flight professions. For instance, in the USA, some regional careers have raised their entry level pay to about $30,000 per year. Large carriers, aircraft manufacturers and regulators have begun training pilots. For instance, JetBlue is one of the airlines in the US that has initiated a program to train aspiring pilots and other professionals for free (Looming airline pilot shortage could adversely affect the U.S., due to the importance of commercial aviation 2015). This step follows similar steps that have been carried out in Europe and Asia.
Another step explored is restructuring that could see aspiring pilots secure students loans to enable a larger number of young people take up careers in aviation (Dastin 2015). This would be a sustainable way to ensure that airlines do not experience the shortage of flight professionals in the near future. As this continues, it is apparent that many professionals will be absorbed in the industry, most of which might not have the required experience. Thus, there is a need to ensure that all of these professionals have the required practical experience to safely operate the complex systems of machines that make aircrafts fly safely.
Research conducted by IATA indicated that of all the aviation accidents that occurred between 1989 and 2003, about 45% were caused by the cockpit crew. 17%, 16%, 8 % and 6% of the accidents were caused by the aircraft related issues, the environment, the power plant, and maintenance respectively (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). 5% and 3 % of these accidents were brought about by air traffic control and the airport. From these figures, it is evident that 45 % (accidents caused by the cockpit crew) and 6% (accidents caused by maintenance) are directly linked to the flight personnel. This accounts for an entire 51% (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). Still, IATA stated that close to 95 % of these adverse outcomes could be predictable and with proper training and experience, their devastating effects could be reduced (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). However, the same research revealed that data was largely reactive in that many outcomes and especially accidents were largely hard to predict.
Experience is very important in any field. In aviation, it is similar to a process of ‘interaction’ between various systems and the professionals. In the labs where flight simulators are largely used to train aspiring professionals, the conditions are ideal and very different to what would be the actual case. However, while operating various systems, a person gets an opportunity to learn how various factors interact in the real life. The effects of such occurrences as wind shear, equipment failure, and loss of communication, birds, traffic and poor visibility among others are observed in the lab. With such experiences, the trainee is able to learn the most appropriate action to take. It is erroneous to assume that having prior experience of such events would make any difference if the individual does not react appropriately. The team investigating the Colgan air Flight 3407 back in 2009 found out that the cockpit crew lacked crucial experience that could have helped avert the great loss that occurred (Pasztor 2009). The cockpit crew lacked adequate mastery of effective communication with the air traffic controllers. In addition, Boeing states that human errors contribute up to 70% of serious aviation accidents that leads to the loss of the hull (Boeing n.d.). These errors could be due to commission or omission of the cockpit crew, as well as traffic management or maintenance teams. Whereas it is impossible to eradicate errors, prior experience of a situation may play a pivotal role in ensuring that an operation is conducted in the right way. As a result, Boeing Company has initiated a team named ‘Human Factors’ aimed at educating flight professionals on how to minimize common errors, some of which have previously lead to loss of the hull. For this reason, the representatives of Boeing Company’s Human Factors team shares their experiences with flight professionals to make aviation safer (Boeing n.d.). In addition to working with crew and management teams, this team conducts research to map out human abilities and limitations. It also seeks to find out how these can effectively compliment machines to achieve comfortable and safe aviation. While today’s aircraft and control systems are very technologically advanced, their operations and safety during and after flights depend on a human judgment. On the other hand, although a human judgment is based on skills and intelligence, previous experiences play a crucial role in making a sound judgment. According to Boeing (n.d.), the continuous trend in improvement of aviation safety is not solely based on the improved designs and technological advancements, but also on the accumulation of experience.
To bridge the current and the projected shortage of professionals, the issue of basic training and minimum flight hours for flight engineers, pilots and captains need to be harmonized. As the industry is planning to train the next generation of flight professionals, there is a need to regulate the aviation training and the accumulation of flight hours (especially for pilots). This will Help the trainees in obtaining the minimum hours needed so that they can apply as copilots. As trainee pilots and other professionals spend time in classes and labs, there is a need to ensure they also spend a significant amount of their time gaining the required experience.
Another aspect that needs to be looked into is the emphasis that is given to flight hours over the real practical experience. In the pilot training and in other training programs, an emphasis is given to the events that have a higher probability of occurring. Some occurrences that are rare, but the fatal ones could not be ignored. Such occurrences as windshear and adverse weather could be rather common, often occurring without any warning, and require timely and decisive intervention from a cockpit crew to avert losses. On the other hand, the loss of communication, engine failure and obstruction of runway among others could be very rare such that instructors see no need of emphasizing them. The probability that an event is only likely to happen less than ones in a pilot’s/captains career does not mean that it will certainly not happen. Since focusing on all possible occurrences may make pilot training even more expensive for an individual, it is imperative to have players in this industry take up the role of financing training since it is much cheaper from their side.
Another aspect that can Help new entrants in the profession in gaining the required experience in aviation may comprise reviewing the laws. For instance, 1500 flight hours for a copilot is more than necessary for an industry that thrived with captains that had far fewer flight hours. Essentially, the captain and the first officer have equal academic qualifications and the 1500 rule made them to have similar experience (Silk 2016). It is crucial to remember that the other names for a captain and a first officer are a pilot and a copilot respectively. The two professionals are simply referred to as ‘the cockpit crew’. It is significant to note that the two professionals could have similar academic qualifications and experience. However, the decision to have one of them as the pilot and the other one as the copilot is for hierarchy purposes only. For most airlines, the promotion to become a captain is done in order to promote staff loyalty to the airlines among other reasons. Therefore, it is not uncommon to find that an airline copilot has more academic qualifications and better experience in the field than a pilot.
The cockpit protocol dictates that the flight captain/the pilot is in charge of the entire aircraft, crew members and passengers. Both the pilot and the captain may share the responsibilities of flying. This is because as seen earlier, both professionals have the required training and experience to safely fly. At a given time, one of them is referred to as a pilot flying (PF), while the other one is referred to as a pilot monitoring (PM). With slight changes in the legal and professional code, the industry can allow competent and fully trained pilot trainees with less flight hours to fly alongside their highly experienced counterparts. This is because at any given time, even when the PF is the one with the less experiences, the PM will monitor and be able to Help in case it is required. Therefore, it might help to reconsider the reactionary ‘1500 hours rule’ (Hoffman 2014).
This would, in itself, free very many highly experienced pilots an opportunity to coach the highly trained pilots who have less flight hours, which would in turn reduce shortage. This would particularly Help when enough steps have been taken to train adequate numbers of pilots. The captain, who is in overall charge of the crew, passengers and the aircraft, can be required to have as many as 1500 hours or more (Silk 2016). It would be important to emphasize the pilots’ ability to effectively fly the plane at all times given that it is what the profession demands. For this reason, much practical experience is needed in this group. For the copilot, the previous 250 hours may be adequate. Still a lot of spaces for the highly trained pilots who have not had an opportunity to fly for many hours but can still safely fly would be freed and would give the much needed opportunity for trainee pilots to accumulate flight hours and gain the experience from established pilots. This would also reduce the time that trainee pilots take before they can finally have an opportunity to fly airliners as captains. The changes to allow less experienced pilots to fly along the highly experienced ones can be taken as an interim measure before the industry has adequate numbers of the experienced pilots.
In addition to the fact that professionals in aviation are trained by the highly trained tutors, professionals and technicians in training schools, it could also help if the experienced professionals could share some of their experiences. This could be one way of reducing the gap in experience between the established professionals and the newly trained ones. This can follow the model used by Boeing in the Human Factors project seen earlier. Boeings project also looks into how systems interact to make flights safer, including steps that can be taken to respond to both common and rare emergencies. This can be a step in the right direction in ensuring that experiences from seasoned professions Help in aspiring others. It would be undesirable to have experienced professionals retire before having an opportunity to mentor young properly trained but inexperienced professionals. Still, interaction between professionals in aviation, aircraft and systems manufacturers, and regulators need to come together such that the experience passed to trainees is inclusive and takes into consideration all these diverse areas. Of note, this can be one through which valuable experience can be shared to young leaders and can supplement the amount gained through other means, such on the job training and practicing over some time.
In the case of the flight 3407 from Colgan Airline given earlier, it was established that the accident happened because both the pilot and copilot did not pay attention to the advice given by the flight controllers. From the regulation point of view, this exposes a situation where the backstopped with two people; the pilot and the copilot. Otherwise, it is unclear why the investigating team apportioned a significant amount of blame on the copilot. Although significant emphasis has been laid on the educational and the training background of professionals in aviation, more needs to be done. It is important to find out why exactly the two members of the cockpit crew did not heed to communication from the flight controllers and whether their action was caused by training background, experience, or personal issues. In-flight communication is an area that is well covered in flight training schools; therefore, it is possible that the cockpit crew’s failure could also have been blamed on personal issues among these two professionals with faulty training background. This is to support the fact that properly trained pilots with fewer flight hours can fly safely under supervision of the well-experienced and established captains, especially in the current times where there is a shortage. This is because at any given time, the captain is either the PF or PM and his/her wide experiences can, therefore, be utilized whenever needed. Generally, this can be extrapolated to the other areas of flight professionals such that qualified professionals work under supervision and Helpances of experienced professionals, Helping them to gain some experience. This could also be an important way through which the industry can avert the current shortage, allow more trainees to gain more experience to avert the larger projected shortage in the future, and make aviation safer.
On the other hand, IATA emphasizes the situational awareness among airline pilots and other professionals as being very important for ensuring that flights are safe (New IATA passenger forecast reveals fast-growing markets of the future /iata.com 2014). As described earlier, statistics are usually not predictive and usually describe the patterns of past events. There is no guarantee that undesirable events will happen as they occurred in the past. This can explain the observation as to why no two flight accidents are totally similar. Additionally, no two accidents are occasioned by identical circumstances, which limit the true and perceived importance of previous experiences in making aviation safer. For this reason, other parameters that affect the safety of flights and the hull need to be emphasized too. There is a need to emphasize the importance of situational awareness to the new entrants in the industry. Not all flight challenges can be solved using the tried and tested flight procedures acquired through experience. Thus, in order to avert possible loss of life and property, it is essential to emphasize the need to understand how the aircrafts perform under different conditions and how to manipulate this behavior or increased safety: these points to rigorous and responsive training of professionals. New entrants need to understand how to manipulate various systems with a view that in case of a hitch in flight, the pilot and/or copilot who controls his/her aircraft in the best way stands the best chance of survival and saving the hull.
When seeking for experience, some aspects are over emphasized. For instance, for pilots and captains, one aspect of experience may be over emphasized at the expense of others. Flight hours are seen as the best measure of experience, which can be deceptive. Some of professionals may have accumulated many of their flight hours flying similar aircraft and some over similar routes. In such flights, many hours might not translate into added practical knowledge or added ability to solve flight problems. In other instances, there are others who have flown different types of aircraft and over different routes and hence experienced many challenges. With these experiences, coupled with situational awareness and skills obtained in aviation schools, they might be in a better position to respond to various challenges in a better way and save the hull.
The behavior of the personnel operating these machines cannot be predicted as people are complex beings whose behaviors depend on health, education, spirits, temperament, environmental conditions, experiences, training among many others. On the other hand, the flight systems are very complex and can produce thousands of outcomes depending on input, environmental conditions, efficiency among many others. The interaction of people and complex systems can lead to a multiplicity of probable results. Therefore, regardless of all the training and the experience that flight professionals may have, the industry is centuries away from guaranteeing 100% immunity from accidents. The general goal should be ensuring that the range of outcomes is favorable. All factors such that the conditions of the machines and systems, the education, mood, health and experience of professionals are optimal. This would be crucial in making aviation safer. It is imperative to make all the necessary effort to ensure all preventable accidents are eliminated, which will contribute to aviation safety.
CONCLUSION
As seen throughout the research, the aviation industry has experienced unprecedented growth, which is projected to increase for the next 20 years. The number of aircraft purchased has been increasing and is expected to increase. It is expected that y 2034, the number of aircrafts owned by airliners will be double that in 2014. This increase in the number of aircrafts will require more professionals, ranging from pilots, flight engineers and flight controllers among others. It is important to note that these professionals must have the required training and experience needed to safely operate various systems.
On the other hand, there has been a wide range of factors that have caused a shortage of professionals as described throughout the paper. They include the cost of training, the amount of time required, and extensive experience. All these factors bar aspiring people from joining a career in this area. Another factor that has contributed to the shortage is a relative loss of competitiveness of careers in aviation as compared to other industries. Moreover, there have also been legislations passed to demand more flight hours and more experience for pilots. As a result, careers in aviation have generally become less competitive. For these reasons, the industry has been experiencing shortage of professionals. The immediate response by large carriers has been increasing the entry level salaries for the professionals. Conversely, this move has increased competition for available professionals, making small carriers and LCCs the most affected by the shortage. Still, some trained professionals have lacked opportunities to accumulate the flight hours required so that they can be allowed to practice in airlines. This has also served to worsen the shortage.
Due to various dynamics described in the results and analysis section, trained but inexperienced professionals may soon be allowed to work in airlines to stem the current and the projected shortage. On the other hand, experience is important in increasing the quality of decisions made, especially in critical conditions. A significant aspect of flight safety can be attached to the experience of professionals. This is because experience is an important means through which practical knowledge is obtained. It is a channel through which professionals can learn how to interact with different machine systems and environment among other factors.
In addition to making it easier for young people to train to work in aviation, it is also to make it easier for them to gain the required experience. This is the only way through which the shortage in the industry can be reduced. It also provides a means through which safety can be improved. As seen in the sections above, the paper discussed several ways through which the well-trained but inexperienced professionals can have the experience required to safely fly aircraft. Among such ways may include programs to Help experienced professionals in mentoring and sharing some of their proficiencies with young trainees. There is a need to allow fully trained pilots to fly along the experienced ones. When all the above said is done, it is the captain who is in charge of flight either as PF or PM. So his/her experience can be utilized whenever needed. On the other hand, the pilot trainees will get an opportunity to gain experienced needed to fly safely. As the average age of pilots continue to rise as seen earlier, their valuable experiences may be lost if deliberate efforts are not made to Help them in passing it to younger ones.
In addition, there is a need to ensure that the experience passed is from many perspectives. Professionals in different fields, such as aircraft manufacturing, aviation and aviation regulators among others, should be involved. Moreover, their experiences, especially as far as how humans and machines interact, can be important. For this reason, the program, such as Human Factor described earlier, is of great significance. The importance of such program is that it looks into previous accidents and occurrences in the industry, developing a course that can help avoid such occurrences or effectively manage their outcomes. This can Help young professionals in gaining experience. In the process, they can also be taught how to effectively deal with various factors and systems in order to make aviation safer. There is a essay writing help need to find a better way of evaluating the amount of the experience obtained. In addition to the number of flight hours among other measures of experience that are in application today, there is a need to develop tests that determine the amount of practical knowledge obtained. If this is achieved, professionals that gain the required amount of practical knowledge can be allowed to practice without being required to have long experience.
There is also an urgent need to integrate the process of training to gain necessary experience. This will not only make the training cheaper but will also save time. If this is done, trained professionals can be availed to the market over a shorter period of time, averting the projected shortage. With times and money saved, this may have a greater effect of making careers in aviation more competitive. This means that many young people will be attracted to careers in this industry such that there will always be adequate professionals in the future.

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