Posted: September 27th, 2022

AET 703 Project

AET 703 Technology Management Analytics 4

image3.pngAET 703 Technology Management Analytics

Project Description

French Fried Potato Manufacture

ISSUE: 1

Revision Reason: None

You have graduated and joined a major food manufacturer – Lambda Foods. Your area of specialty is the Russet Burbank potato. The Russet, generating approximately 4 million pounds of finished frozen French fries per year, is very important to Lamba Foods.

Potatoes arrive in batches of around 25,000. These are divided into 25 size containers for the journey through production. The target size of the potato is 10 ounces plus or minus one-half of an ounce. In the containerizing process culls are removed bringing uniformity into the containers’ contents.

Blackboard contains a file which has 3 days of containerized potatoes. You are to assure that the product is running “smoothly” without the cost of a formal SQC sampling operation. You and your predecessor have a fairly efficient method of reviewing the potatoes to assure a smooth process.

Sample

First select three samples of 25 potatoes each. Determine whether you wish to do simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling or sampling from a continuous process.

Normal

Check each of your samples to determine if the weights of the potatoes are normal. Plot a histogram of each of the samples, run an Anderson-Darling test for normality on the samples to determine the normality of your samples.

Data Mean and Standard Deviation

For each of the samples give the mean and the standard deviation. For the median weight sample generate the 95% confidence interval for the weight of the population of potatoes. Perform the same analysis for the standard deviation of the weight of the population using the 95% confidence interval. Once again, only analyze one sample – the median sample based on standard deviation. Give your confidence intervals for both the population mean weight and the population standard deviation.

Meeting Target Size

Next, generate a hypothesis test statistically proving, at the alpha equal 0.05 significance level, that your population of potatoes is greater than a value within your target size. As stated, the upper control limit is 10.5 ounces, and the lower control limit is 9.5. Using your mean sample (calculated above), prove that your potato population is greater than 9.5, 9.6, 9.7, 9.8, 9.9, 10.0, 10.1, 10.2 or 10.3 based on your sample analysis.

Forecasting Capacity Needs

Your factory has seasonal demand for the finished product. For the last 20 quarters you have data which seems to support this seasonality. The data by year and quarter is below and is also found in the Blackboard file with the potatoes. These numbers represent millions of pounds of potatoes.

Table 1: Potato Demand

Year

Quarter 1

Quarter 2

Quarter 3

Quarter 4

2017

1.03

0.89

1.24

1.50

2018

0.95

1.02

1.36

1.11

2019

0.89

1.05

1.29

1.34

2020

0.89

0.76

1.29

1.04

2021

0.80

0.57

1.19

0.94

Using this past data engage the autoregressive forecasting model on page 226 in the text to forecast the potato demand for 2020 by quarter. Once you finish with the model you will have a multiple regression equation that may be used to predict potato demand. Plot both the actual demand and the forecasted demand.

Quality of Forecast

Use your equation to “back fill” the previous five years’ data and test the quality of your forecast. Use the following format for your output.

Table 2: Forecast Format

image1.emf

RunningMean AbsoluteAbsoluteMean Abs

ActualSumDeviation% Error% ErrorTrack

YearQTRForecastAct-ForecastABS(A-F)Forecast ErrorsMADAPEMAPESignal

Did your model violate any of the limits on the tracking signal? What is your forecast in pounds for quarter one, two, three and four for year 2022? What are your total forecasted potatoes processed for next year?

Summary

Summarize all of the findings and decisions for this manufacturing operation. Your team will be required to present findings in PowerPoint and generate at least a 10-page APA formatted paper. The paper must include the summary sheet (attached) which requests critical data from the project. The attached rubric will be used to score your project. Please become familiar with the rubric.

Enjoy this project. The project will help you to understand some of the principles learned in the statistics and data modeling class that you will be faced upon graduation.

Dr. West

Summary Sheet

image2.emf

Project ActivityUnits

1First Team Meeting DateDate

2Number of team meetingsNumber

3Meeting MethodWord

4Completion of sample and test of normalityDate

5Completion of Mean and Standard DeviationDate

6Meeting target size hypothesis testDate

7Completed work with forecastDate

8Completion of presentationDate

9Completion of paperDate

Sample

9What sample technique did you use?Word

Normal

10Was the first sample normal?Word

11What was the pvalue?Number

12Was the second sample normal?Word

13What was the pvalue?Number

14Was the third sample normal?Word

15What was the pvalue?Number

Mean and Standard Deviation

16What was the x-bar for the first sample?Number

17What was the x-bar for the second sample?Number

18What was the x-bar for the third sample?Number

19What was the standard deviation of the first sample?Number

20What was the standard deviation of the first sample?Number

21What was the standard deviation of the first sample?Number

22For the X-bar selected, what is the confidence level?Number

23What are the degrees of freedom?Number

24What is the T-value?Number

25What is the standard error of the mean?Number

26What is the half width?Number

27What is the low value for the confidence interval of the mean of the population?Number

28What is the high value for the confidence interval of the mean of the population?Number

29For the standard deviation selected, what is the confidence level?, Number

30What is the sum of squares?Number

31What is the low Chi-square distribution value?Number

32What is the high Chi-square distribution value?Number

33What is the low confidence interval value for variance?Number

34What is the high confidence interval value for variance?Number

35What is the low confidence interval value for standard deviation?Number

36What is the high confidence interval value for standard deviation?Number

Meeting Target size

37For proving greater than, what is your null hypothesis for your mean test?Word

38What is your alternative hypothesis?Word

39What is your p-value for the above hypothesis test?Number

Forecasting Capacity Needs

40In backfilling to test your model, what is the first quarter you can produce a value?Word

41What was the potato demands for year 2017 in pounds?Number

42What was the potato demands for year 2017 in 10 ounce potatoes?Number

43What is the equation to forecast using the autoregressive forecasting model?Equation

44What was the first quarter eliminated in generating the autoregressive model?Number

45What is your forecast in pounds for the first quarter of 2022?Number

46What is your forecast in pounds for the second quarter of 2022?Number

47What is your forecast in pounds for the third quarter of 2022?Number

48What is your forecast in pounds for the fourth quarter of 2022?Number

49What is your production forecast of potatoes needed in the year of 2022?Number

50For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the Actual value.Number

51For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the forecasted value.Number

52For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the absolute actual minus forecast value.Number

53For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the MAD?Number

54For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the APE?Number

55For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the MAPE?Number

56For the 1st quarter in 2021 provide the tracking signal?Number

Written Rubric

Level of Mastery

4

3

2

1

Context of and purpose for writing includes considerations of audience purpose, and the circumstances surrounding the writing task(s).

20 points

Demonstrates a thorough understanding of context, audience, and purpose that is responsive to the assigned tasks and focuses all elements of the work.

15 points

Demonstrates adequate consideration of context, audience, and purpose and a clear focus on the assigned tasks (e.g. the tasks align with audience, purpose, and context).

10 points

Demonstrates awareness of context, audience, purpose and to the assigned tasks (e.g. begins to show awareness of audience’s perceptions and assumptions).

5 points

Demonstrates minimal attention to context, audience, purpose and to the assigned tasks (e.g. expectation of instructor or self as audience).

Content development

Appropriate, relevant, and compelling content; mastery of the subject or explore ideas within the context of the discipline.

20 points

Uses appropriate, relevant, and compelling content to illustrate mastery of the subject, conveying the writer’s understanding, and shaping the whole work.

15 points

Uses appropriate, relevant, and compelling content to explore ideas within the context of the discipline and shape the whole work.

10 points

Uses appropriate and relevant content to develop and explore ideas through the most of the work.

5 points

Uses appropriate and relevant content to develop simple ideas in some parts of the work.

Genre and disciplinary conventions

Formal and informal rules inherent in the expectations for writing in particular forms and/or academic fields.

20 points

Demonstrates detailed attention to and successful execution of a wide range of conventions particular to a specific discipline and/or writing tasks, including organization, content, presentation, formatting, and stylistic choices.

15 points

Demonstrates consistent use of important conventions particular to a specific discipline and/or writing tasks, including organization, content, presentation, and stylistic choices.

10 points

Follows expectations appropriate to a specific discipline and/or writing tasks for basic organization, content, and presentation.

5 points

Attempts to use a consistent system for basic organization and presentation.

Sources and evidences

Use of relevant sources to develop ideas that are appropriate for the discipline and genre of the writing.

20 points

Demonstrates skillful use of high quality, credible, relevant sources to develop ideas that are appropriate for the discipline and genre of the writing.

15 points

Demonstrates consistent use of credible, relevant sources to support ideas that are suitable within the discipline and genre of the writing.

10 points

Demonstrates attempt to use credible and/or relevant sources to support ideas that are appropriate for the discipline and genre of the writing.

5 points

Demonstrates attempt to use sources to support ideas in writing.

Control of syntax and mechanics

Use of language that communicates meaning to readers with clarity and fluency, and is error-free.

20 points

Uses graceful language that skillfully communicates meaning to readers with clarity and fluency, and is virtually error-free.

15 points

Uses straightforward language that generally conveys meaning to readers. The language in the portfolio has few errors.

10 points

Uses language that generally conveys meaning to readers with clarity, although writing may include some errors.

5 points

Uses language that sometimes impedes meaning because of errors in usage.

Critical Thinking

Level of Mastery

4

3

2

1

Technology Innovation – Demonstrate the ability in technology innovation, development and deployment of new technologies across a broad spectrum of industries, planning, problem solving, and decision-making.

20 points

Demonstrate the ability in technology innovation, development and deployment of new technologies; planning, problem solving, and decision-making.

15 points

Demonstrate the ability in development and deployment of new technologies; planning, problem solving, and decision-making.

10 points

Demonstrate the ability in technology development; planning, problem solving, and decision-making.

5 points

Demonstrate the ability in technology development and application of existing technologies.

Synthesis of Knowledge – Demonstrate the ability in embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.

20 points

Demonstrate the ability in embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.

15 points

Demonstrate the ability in synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services.

10 points

Demonstrate the ability in synthesis of knowledge in relevant, valued products, processes, or services.

5 points

Demonstrate the ability in combination of knowledge in relevant products, processes, or services.

Creative Improvements – Demonstrate creative ideas in the aspects of improved quality, creation of new markets, extension of the product range, reduced labor costs, improved production processes, reduced materials, reduced environmental damage, replacement of products/services, reduced energy consumption, conformance to regulations, etc.

20 points

Demonstrate creative ideas in several aspects as mentioned in general.

15 points

Demonstrate creative ideas in at least one aspect as mentioned in general.

10 points

Demonstrate the ability in applying existing ideas for improvements in some aspects as mentioned in general.

5 points

Intend to apply existing ideas for improvements in at least one aspect as mentioned in general.

Information – Evaluate credibility of sources of information and opinion. Recognize logical conflict, compatibility, and equivalence. Assess statistical information, generalizations, and reasoning. Determine when additional information is needed for a given purpose. Recognize misleading information.

20 points

Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize logical equivalence. Assess statistical information. Determine additional information for a given purpose. Recognize misleading information.

15 points

Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize logical equivalence. Determine additional information for a given purpose. Recognize misleading information.

10 points

Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize logical equivalence. Recognize misleading information.

5 points

Evaluate credibility of sources of information. Recognize misleading information.

Critique Ability – Critique creatively and competently the existing processes, practice, and methodology. Understand and evaluate cause and effect arguments and explanations for improvement.

20 points

Critique creatively the existing processes and methodology. Understand and evaluate cause and effect arguments and explanations for improvement.

15 points

Critique creatively the existing processes and methodology. Understand and evaluate cause and effect arguments.

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