Posted: February 23rd, 2022

Week 5 Homeland Security

Assertion for the Document
Worldwide Menace Assessment
of the
US Intelligence Neighborhood
Senate Choose Committee on Intelligence
Daniel R. Coats
Director of Nationwide Intelligence
Might 11, 2017
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STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD
WORLDWIDE THREAT ASSESSMENT
of the
US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY

Might 11, 2017
INTRODUCTION
Chairman Burr, Vice Chairman Warner, Members of the Committee, thanks for the invitation to supply
the US Intelligence Neighborhood’s 2017 Assessment of threats to US nationwide safety. My
assertion displays the collective insights of the Intelligence Neighborhood’s extraordinary women and men,
whom I’m privileged and honored to guide. We within the Intelligence Neighborhood are dedicated on daily basis to
present the nuanced, multidisciplinary intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and home regulation
enforcement personnel want to guard American lives and America’s pursuits anyplace on the planet.
The order of the matters introduced on this assertion doesn’t essentially point out the relative significance
or magnitude of the risk within the view of the Intelligence Neighborhood.
Data obtainable as of April 24, 2017 was used within the preparation of this Assessment.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Web page
GLOBAL THREATS
Cyber Menace
Rising and Disruptive Applied sciences
Terrorism
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation
House and Counterspace
Counterintelligence
Transnational Organized Crime
Economics and Pure Assets
Human Security
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three
four
6
eight
9
10
12
13
REGIONAL THREATS
East Asia
China
North Korea
Southeast Asia
Russia and Eurasia
Russia
Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus
The Caucasus and Central Asia
Europe
Key Companions
Turkey
Center East and North Africa
Syria
Iraq
Iran
Yemen
16
16
16
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
20
21
21
22
23
24
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South Asia
Afghanistan
Pakistan
India-Pakistan
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Sudan
Sudan
Nigeria
Sahel
Somalia
Ethiopia
Democratic Republic of the Congo
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
Western Hemisphere
Mexico
Central America
Colombia
Cuba
Venezuela
27
27
27
27
27
28
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GLOBAL THREATS
CYBER THREAT
Our adversaries have gotten more proficient at utilizing our on-line world to threaten our pursuits and advance
their very own, and regardless of enhancing cyber defenses, almost all info, communication networks, and
techniques can be in danger for years.
Cyber threats are already difficult public belief and confidence in international establishments, governance, and
norms, whereas imposing prices on the US and international economies. Cyber threats additionally pose an rising danger
to public well being, security, and prosperity as cyber applied sciences are built-in with vital infrastructure in
key sectors. These threats are amplified by our ongoing delegation of decisionmaking, sensing, and
authentication roles to doubtlessly susceptible automated techniques. This delegation will increase the doubtless
bodily, financial, and psychological penalties of cyber assault and exploitation occasions once they
do happen. Many international locations view cyber capabilities as a viable device for projecting their affect and can
proceed creating cyber capabilities. Some adversaries additionally stay undeterred from conducting
reconnaissance, espionage, affect, and even assaults in our on-line world.
Cyber Menace Actors
Russia. Russia is a full-scope cyber actor that may stay a serious risk to US Authorities, army,
diplomatic, industrial, and significant infrastructure. Moscow has a extremely superior offensive cyber
program, and in recent times, the Kremlin has assumed a extra aggressive cyber posture. This
aggressiveness was evident in Russia’s efforts to affect the 2016 US election, and we assess that
solely Russia’s senior-most officers may have approved the 2016 US election-focused knowledge thefts and
disclosures, based mostly on the scope and sensitivity of the targets. Outdoors the US, Russian actors
have performed damaging and disruptive cyber assaults, together with on vital infrastructure networks. In
some circumstances, Russian intelligence actors have masqueraded as third events, hiding behind false on-line
personas designed to trigger the sufferer to misattribute the supply of the assault. Russia has additionally
leveraged our on-line world to hunt to affect public opinion throughout Europe and Eurasia. We assess that
Russian cyber operations will proceed to focus on the US and its allies to assemble intelligence,
Help Russian decisionmaking, conduct affect operations to Help Russian army and political
goals, and put together the cyber atmosphere for future contingencies.
China. We assess that Beijing will proceed actively focusing on the US Authorities, its allies, and US
corporations for cyber espionage. Personal-sector safety specialists proceed to establish ongoing cyber exercise
from China, though at volumes considerably decrease than earlier than the bilateral Chinese language-US cyber
commitments of September 2015. Beijing has additionally selectively used offensive cyber operations in opposition to
overseas targets that it most likely believes threaten Chinese language home stability or regime legitimacy.
Iran. Tehran continues to leverage cyber espionage, propaganda, and assaults to Help its safety
priorities, affect occasions and overseas perceptions, and counter threats—together with in opposition to US allies in
the area. Iran has additionally used its cyber capabilities straight in opposition to the US. For instance, in
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2013, an Iranian hacker performed an intrusion into the economic management system of a US dam, and in
2014, Iranian actors performed a knowledge deletion assault in opposition to the community of a US-based on line casino.
North Korea. Pyongyang has beforehand performed cyber-attacks in opposition to US industrial entities—
particularly, Sony Photos Leisure in 2014—and stays able to launching disruptive or
damaging cyber assaults to Help its political goals. Pyongyang additionally poses a cyber risk to US
allies. South Korean officers have prompt that North Korea was most likely chargeable for the
compromise and disclosure of information in 2014 from a South Korean nuclear plant.
Terrorists. Terrorists—to incorporate the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS)—may even proceed to
use the Web to prepare, recruit, unfold propaganda, increase funds, accumulate intelligence, encourage motion by
followers, and coordinate operations. Hizballah and HAMAS will proceed to construct on their cyber
accomplishments inside and out of doors the Center East. ISIS will proceed to hunt alternatives to focus on
and launch delicate details about US residents, much like their operations in 2015 disclosing
details about US army personnel, in an effort to encourage assaults.
Criminals. Criminals are additionally creating and utilizing refined cyber instruments for a wide range of functions
together with theft, extortion, and facilitation of different prison actions. “Ransomware,” malware that employs
deception and encryption to dam customers from accessing their very own knowledge, has turn into a very standard
device of extortion. In 2016, criminals using ransomware turned their focus to the medical sector,
disrupting affected person care and undermining public confidence in some medical establishments.
Bodily Penalties
Our adversaries are prone to search capabilities to carry in danger US vital infrastructure in addition to the
broader ecosystem of linked client and industrial units referred to as the “Web of Issues” (IoT).
Security researchers proceed to find vulnerabilities in client merchandise together with vehicles and
medical units. If adversaries acquire the power to create important bodily results in the US
through cyber means, they’ll have gained new avenues for coercion and deterrence. For instance, a cyber
assault on a Ukrainian energy community in 2015 brought on energy outages for a number of hours.
Financial and Security Penalties
Adversaries will proceed to make use of cyber operations to undermine US army and industrial benefit by
hacking into US protection business and industrial enterprises in pursuit of scientific, technical, and
enterprise info. Examples embrace theft of information on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the F-22 Raptor
fighter jet, and the MV-22 Osprey. As well as, adversaries typically goal private accounts of presidency
officers and their private-sector counterparts. This espionage reduces value and accelerates the
growth of overseas weapon techniques, allows overseas reverse-engineering and countermeasures
growth, and undermines US army, technological, and industrial benefit.
Psychological Penalties
The influence of cyber threats extends past the bodily and industrial realms. On-line threats—from
each states and non-state actors—distort the perceptions and decisionmaking processes of the goal,
whether or not they’re international locations or people, in methods which are each apparent and insidious. Data from
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cyber espionage may be leaked indiscriminately or selectively to form perceptions. Moreover, even a
technically safe Web can function a platform for the supply of manipulative content material crafted by foes
looking for to achieve affect or foment mistrust.
World Security, Diplomacy, and Norms
We assess that as overseas international locations search to stability safety, financial development, and interoperability
goals, many will implement new legal guidelines and technical adjustments to observe and management entry to
info inside and throughout their borders. Some states will proceed to hunt to regulate consumer entry
via means reminiscent of restrictions on encryption and steps to cut back anonymity on-line. Nonetheless, these
states will most likely not considerably erode the general international connectivity of the Web. Moreover,
some state info management efforts will nearly actually be challenged by a broad coalition of states
and non-state cyber stakeholders, together with revolutionary technologists, business leaders, privateness advocates,
“hackers,” and others with an curiosity in opposing censorship or authorities management of our on-line world.
Though recognition is widespread that present worldwide regulation applies to states’ conduct in
our on-line world, how that regulation applies to states’ use of knowledge and communication applied sciences (ICT)
stays a topic of great worldwide dialogue. As well as, though efforts are ongoing to achieve
adherence to sure voluntary, non-binding norms of accountable state conduct in our on-line world, they’ve
not gained common acceptance, and efforts to advertise them are more and more polarized. Regardless of the
existence and widespread ratification of the Budapest Conference—the treaty on cybercrime of the
Council of Europe—some states have referred to as for the drafting of latest worldwide treaties to manage
cybercrime and different cyber-related points. Furthermore, though some international locations may be keen to
discover limits on cyber operations in opposition to sure targets, few would doubtless Help a ban on offensive
capabilities.
EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Strategic Outlook
Continued fast technological progress stays central to financial prosperity and social well-being, however
it is usually introducing potential new threats. Synthetic intelligence (AI) is advancing computational
capabilities that profit the economic system, but these advances additionally allow new army capabilities for our
adversaries. Genome modifying has the potential to remedy illnesses and modify human efficiency, which
presents new moral and safety points. The Web of Issues (IoT) is connecting billions of latest
units to the Web, nevertheless it additionally broadens the assault potential of cyber actors in opposition to networks and
info. Semiconductors stay core to the economic system and the army, but new nationwide safety dangers
may come up from next-generation chips due to expertise plateaus and investments by different states.
Synthetic Intelligence
A surge of business and authorities analysis is enhancing AI capabilities whereas elevating nationwide
safety points. Semi-autonomous automobiles, the victory of an AI-based system over the world champion in
the sport Go, and units with AI-enabled private Helpants have drawn international consideration to the sector.
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Firms across the globe are investing in a spread of AI purposes together with advertising and marketing, crime
detection, well being, and autonomous autos. Though the US leads AI analysis globally,
overseas state analysis in AI is rising. International governments cite AI of their science and expertise
methods or have deliberate particular efforts to boost their AI capabilities. The implications of our
adversaries’ skills to make use of AI are doubtlessly profound and broad. They embrace an elevated
vulnerability to cyber assault, problem in ascertaining attribution, facilitation of advances in overseas weapon
and intelligence techniques, the chance of accidents and associated legal responsibility points, and unemployment.
Genome Modifying
The event of genome-editing applied sciences is accelerating the speed at which we are able to develop new
approaches to handle medical, well being, industrial, environmental, and agricultural challenges and
revolutionize organic analysis. Nonetheless, the quick tempo of growth and broad vary of purposes
are prone to problem governments and scientific communities alike to develop regulatory and moral
frameworks or norms to manipulate the accountable utility of the expertise.
Web of Issues
The widespread incorporation of “sensible” units into on a regular basis objects is altering how folks and
machines work together with one another and the world round them, typically enhancing effectivity, comfort,
and high quality of life. Their deployment has additionally launched vulnerabilities into each the infrastructure that
they Help and on which they rely, in addition to the processes they information. Cyber actors have already
used IoT units for distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) assaults, and we assess they’ll proceed. In
the long run, state and non-state actors will doubtless use IoT units to Help intelligence operations or
home safety or to entry or assault focused pc networks.
Subsequent-Technology Semiconductors
Continuous development of semiconductor applied sciences in the course of the previous 50 years in accordance with
Moore’s Regulation—which posits that the general processing energy of computer systems will double each two years—
has been a key driver of the data expertise revolution that underpins many US financial and
safety benefits. Trade specialists, nonetheless, are involved that Moore’s Regulation may now not apply
by the mid-2020s as the elemental limits of physics to additional miniaturize transistors are reached,
doubtlessly eroding US nationwide safety benefits. In the meantime, China is rising its efforts to enhance
its home technological and manufacturing capabilities via mergers and acquisitions to cut back its
dependence on overseas semiconductor expertise, based on Western specialists and enterprise analysts.
TERRORISM
The worldwide risk from terrorism will stay geographically numerous and multifaceted—a unbroken
problem for the US, our allies, and companions who search to counter it. Sunni violent extremists
will stay the first terrorist risk. These extremists will proceed to embroil battle zones within the
Center East, Africa, and South Asia. Some may even search to aim assaults outdoors their working areas.
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 Iran continues to be the foremost state sponsor of terrorism and, with its major terrorism companion,
Lebanese Hizballah, will pose a unbroken risk to US pursuits and companions worldwide. The
Syrian, Iraqi, and Yemeni conflicts will proceed to worsen the rising Sunni-Shia sectarian battle,
threatening regional stability.
Terrorist Menace to the US
US-based homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) will stay probably the most frequent and unpredictable Sunni
violent extremist risk to the US homeland. They are going to be spurred on by terrorist teams’ public calls to
perform assaults within the West. The specter of HVE assaults will persist, and a few assaults will most likely happen
with little or no warning. In 2016, 16 HVEs have been arrested, and three died in assaults in opposition to civilian gentle
targets. These detained have been arrested for a wide range of causes, together with making an attempt journey abroad for
jihad and plotting assaults in the US. Along with the HVE risk, a small variety of foreignbased Sunni violent extremist teams may even pose a risk to the US homeland and proceed publishing
multilingual propaganda that requires assaults in opposition to US and Western pursuits within the US homeland and
overseas.
Dynamic Abroad Menace Surroundings
The Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) continues to pose an lively terrorist risk to the United
States and its allies due to its ideological attraction, media presence, management of territory in Iraq and
Syria, its branches and networks in different international locations, and its confirmed means to direct and encourage assaults
in opposition to a variety of targets all over the world. Nonetheless, territorial losses in Iraq and Syria and
persistent counterterrorism operations in opposition to elements of its international community are degrading its energy and
means to use instability and societal discontent. ISIS is unlikely to announce that it’s ending its selfdeclared caliphate even when it loses overt management of its de facto capitals in Mosul, Iraq and Ar Raqqah, Syria
and the vast majority of the populated areas it as soon as managed in Iraq and Syria.
Outdoors Iraq and Syria, ISIS is looking for to foster interconnectedness amongst its international branches and
networks, align their efforts to ISIS’s technique, and face up to counter-ISIS efforts. We assess that ISIS
maintains the intent and functionality to direct, allow, help, and encourage transnational assaults. The quantity
of overseas fighters touring to hitch ISIS in Iraq and Syria will most likely proceed to say no as potential
recruits face rising difficulties making an attempt to journey there. The variety of ISIS overseas fighters leaving
Iraq and Syria may improve. Rising departures would very doubtless immediate extra would-be
fighters to search for new battlefields or return to their dwelling international locations to conduct or Help exterior
operations.
Throughout the previous 16 years, US and international counterterrorism (CT) companions have considerably decreased alQa‘ida’s means to hold out large-scale, mass casualty assaults, significantly in opposition to the US homeland.
Nonetheless, al-Qa’ida and its associates stay a major CT risk abroad as they continue to be centered on
exploiting native and regional conflicts. In 2016, al-Nusrah Entrance and al-Qa‘ida within the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) confronted CT stress in Syria and Yemen, respectively, however have preserved the
sources, manpower, protected haven, native affect, and operational capabilities to proceed to pose a
risk. In Somalia, al-Shabaab sustained a excessive tempo of assaults in Somalia and continued to threaten
the northeast and coastal areas of Kenya. Its operations elsewhere in East Africa have diminished after
the deaths of many exterior plotters since 2015, however al-Shabaab retains the sources, manpower,
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affect, and operational capabilities to pose an actual risk to the area, particularly Kenya. In North and
West Africa, al-Qa’ida within the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) escalated its assaults on Westerners
in 2016 with two high-profile assaults in Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire. It merged with allies in 2017 to
kind a brand new group meant to advertise unity amongst Mali-based jihadists, lengthen the jihad past the
Sahara and Sahel area, improve army motion, and velocity up recruitment of fighters. In Afghanistan
and Pakistan, remaining members of al-Qa‘ida and its regional affiliate, al-Qa‘ida within the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS), continued to undergo personnel losses and disruptions to protected havens in 2016 due
to CT operations. Nonetheless, each teams keep the intent to conduct assaults in opposition to the US
and the West.
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND PROLIFERATION
State efforts to modernize, develop, or purchase weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their supply
techniques, or their underlying applied sciences represent a serious risk to the safety of the US, its
deployed troops, and allies. Each state and non-state actors have already demonstrated the usage of
chemical weapons within the Levant. Organic and chemical supplies and applied sciences—nearly at all times
twin use—transfer simply within the globalized economic system, as do personnel with the scientific experience to design
and use them for legit and illegitimate functions. Details about the newest discoveries within the life
sciences additionally diffuses quickly across the globe, widening the accessibility of information and instruments for
useful functions and for doubtlessly nefarious purposes.
Russia Urgent Ahead With Cruise Missile That Violates the INF Treaty
Russia has developed a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) that the US has declared is in
violation of the Intermediate-Vary Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Regardless of Russia’s ongoing growth
of different Treaty-compliant missiles with intermediate ranges, Moscow most likely believes that the brand new
GLCM gives adequate army benefits that make it value risking the political repercussions of
violating the INF Treaty. In 2013, a senior Russian administration official said publicly that the world
had modified for the reason that INF Treaty was signed in 1987. Different Russian officers have made statements in
the previous complaining that the Treaty prohibits Russia, however not a few of its neighbors, from creating and
possessing ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 to 5,500 kilometers.
China Modernizing its Nuclear Forces
The Chinese language Individuals’s Liberation Military (PLA) has established a Rocket Power—changing the
longstanding Second Artillery Corps—and continues to modernize its nuclear missile drive by including
extra survivable road-mobile techniques and enhancing its silo-based techniques. This new era of
missiles is meant to make sure the viability of China’s strategic deterrent by offering a second-strike
functionality. As well as, the PLA Navy continues to develop the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile
(SLBM) and may produce extra JIN-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. The JINclass submarines—armed with JL-2 SLBMs—will give the PLA Navy its first long-range, sea-based
nuclear functionality.
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Iran and JCPOA
Tehran’s public statements counsel that it needs to protect the Joint Complete Plan of Motion
(JCPOA)—as a result of it views the JCPOA as a way to take away sanctions whereas preserving some nuclear
capabilities. It expects the P5+1 members to stick to their obligations, though Iran clearly acknowledges
the brand new US Administration is anxious with the deal. Iran’s implementation of the JCPOA has prolonged
the period of time Iran would want to supply sufficient fissile materials for a nuclear weapon from a number of
months to a couple of 12 months. The JCPOA has additionally enhanced the transparency of Iran’s nuclear actions,
primarily via improved entry by the Worldwide Atomic Power Company (IAEA) and its investigative
authorities beneath the Further Protocol to its Complete Safeguards Settlement.
Iran is pursuing capabilities to satisfy its nuclear vitality and expertise objectives and to provide it the aptitude to
construct missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, if it chooses to take action. Its pursuit of those objectives will affect
its degree of adherence to the JCPOA. We have no idea whether or not Iran will finally resolve to construct nuclear
weapons.
We decide that Tehran would select ballistic missiles as its most popular technique of delivering nuclear
weapons, if it builds them. Iran’s ballistic missiles are inherently able to delivering WMD, and Tehran
already has the biggest stock of ballistic missiles within the Center East. Tehran’s want to discourage the
United States may drive it to discipline an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Progress on Iran’s house
program may shorten a pathway to an ICBM as a result of house launch autos use related applied sciences.
North Korea Continues To Develop WMD-Relevant Capabilities
North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile packages will proceed to pose a severe risk to US
pursuits and to the safety atmosphere in East Asia in 2017. North Korea’s export of ballistic missiles
and related supplies to a number of international locations, together with Iran and Syria, and its help to Syria’s
building of a nuclear reactor, destroyed in 2007, illustrate its willingness to proliferate harmful
applied sciences.
North Korea has additionally expanded the scale and class of its ballistic missile forces—from closerange ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to ICBMs—and continues to conduct check launches. In 2016, North
Korea performed an unprecedented variety of ballistic missile exams. Pyongyang is dedicated to
creating a long-range, nuclear-armed missile that’s able to posing a direct risk to the United
States; it has publicly displayed its road-mobile ICBMs on a number of events. We assess that North
Korea has taken steps towards fielding an ICBM however has not flight-tested it.
We’ve got lengthy assessed that Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities are meant for deterrence, worldwide
status, and coercive diplomacy.
Chemical Weapons in Iraq and Syria
We assess the Syrian regime used the nerve agent sarin in an assault in opposition to the opposition in Khan
Shaykhun on four April 2017 in what might be the biggest chemical weapons assault since August 2013.
We proceed to evaluate that Syria has not declared all the weather of its chemical weapons program to
the Chemical Weapons Conference (CWC) and has the aptitude to conduct additional assaults. Regardless of the
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creation of a specialised staff and years of labor by the Group for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons (OPCW) to handle gaps and inconsistencies in Syria’s declaration, quite a few points stay
unresolved. The OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) attributed three chlorine assaults in 2014
and 2015 to the Syrian regime.
We assess that non-state actors within the area are additionally utilizing chemical compounds as a way of warfare. The
OPCW-UN JIM concluded that ISIS used sulfur mustard in an assault in 2015. ISIS has allegedly used
chemical compounds in assaults in Iraq and Syria, suggesting that assaults may be widespread.
SPACE AND COUNTERSPACE
House
World Traits. Continued international house business growth will additional lengthen space-enabled
capabilities and house situational consciousness to nation-state, non-state, and industrial house actors in
the approaching years, enabled by elevated availability of expertise, private-sector funding, falling
launch service prices, and rising worldwide partnerships for shared manufacturing and operation.
Authorities and industrial organizations will more and more have entry to space-derived info
providers reminiscent of imagery, climate, Web, communications, and positioning, navigation, and timing
(PNT) for intelligence, army, scientific, or enterprise functions. As an illustration, China goals to turn into a
world chief in PNT because it completes its dual-use international satellite tv for pc navigation system by 2020.
Army and Intelligence. Russia goals to enhance intelligence assortment, missile warning, and army
communications techniques to raised Help situational consciousness and tactical weapons focusing on.
Russian plans to develop its imagery constellation and double or probably triple the variety of satellites by

2025. China intends to proceed rising its space-based army and intelligence capabilities to
      enhance international situational consciousness and Help advanced army operations. Many international locations within the
      Center East, Southeast Asia, and South America are buying dual-use imaging satellites to Help
      strategic army actions, some as joint growth initiatives.
      Counterspace
      House Warfare. We assess that Russia and China understand a have to offset any US army benefit
      derived from army, civil, or industrial house techniques and are more and more contemplating assaults in opposition to
      satellite tv for pc techniques as a part of their future warfare doctrine. Each will proceed to pursue a full vary of antisatellite (ASAT) weapons as a way to cut back US army effectiveness. In late 2015, China
      established a brand new service—the PLA Strategic Help Power—most likely to enhance oversight and
      command of Beijing’s rising army pursuits in house and our on-line world. Russia and China stay
      dedicated to creating capabilities to problem perceived adversaries in house, particularly the United
      States, whereas publicly and diplomatically selling nonweaponization of house and “no first placement” of
      weapons in house. Such dedication continues regardless of ongoing US and allied diplomatic efforts to
      dissuade growth of threats to the peaceable use of house, together with worldwide engagements via
      the UN.
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      Counterspace Weapons. The worldwide risk of digital warfare (EW) assaults in opposition to house techniques
      will develop within the coming years in each quantity and kinds of weapons. Growth will very doubtless focus
      on jamming capabilities in opposition to devoted army satellite tv for pc communications (SATCOM), Artificial
      Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging satellites, and enhanced capabilities in opposition to World Navigation Satellite tv for pc
      Techniques (GNSS), such because the US World Positioning System (GPS). Mixing of EW and cyber-attack
      capabilities will doubtless develop in pursuit of refined means to disclaim and degrade info networks.
      Chinese language researchers have mentioned strategies to boost sturdy jamming capabilities with new techniques
      to jam generally used frequencies. Russia intends to modernize its EW forces and discipline a brand new
      era of EW weapons by 2020. Iran and North Korea are additionally enhancing their skills to disrupt
      army communications and navigation.
      Some new Russian and Chinese language ASAT weapons, together with damaging techniques, will most likely full
      growth within the subsequent a number of years. Russian army strategists doubtless view counterspace weapons as
      an integral a part of broader aerospace protection rearmament and are very doubtless pursuing a various suite of
      capabilities to have an effect on satellites in all orbital regimes. Russian lawmakers have promoted army pursuit of
      ASAT missiles to strike low-Earth orbiting satellites, and Russia is testing such a weapon for eventual
      deployment. A Russian official additionally acknowledged growth of an aircraft-launched missile succesful
      of destroying satellites in low-Earth orbit. Ten years after China intercepted certainly one of its personal satellites in
      low-Earth orbit, its ground-launched ASAT missiles may be nearing operational service throughout the PLA.
      Each international locations are advancing directed vitality weapons applied sciences for the aim of fielding ASAT
      techniques that might blind or injury delicate space-based optical sensors. Russia is creating an
      airborne laser weapon to be used in opposition to US satellites. Russia and China proceed to conduct refined
      on-orbit satellite tv for pc actions, reminiscent of rendezvous and proximity operations, at the very least a few of that are doubtless
      meant to check dual-use applied sciences with inherent counterspace performance. As an illustration, house
      robotic expertise analysis for satellite tv for pc servicing and debris-removal may be used to break satellites.
      Such missions will pose a specific problem sooner or later, complicating the US means to characterize the
      house atmosphere, decipher intent of house exercise, and supply advance risk warning.
      COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
      America will face a fancy international overseas intelligence risk atmosphere in 2017. We assess
      that the main state intelligence threats to US pursuits will proceed to be Russia and China, based mostly on
      their providers’ capabilities, intent, and broad operational scope. Different states in South Asia, the Close to
      East, East Asia, and Latin America will pose native and regional intelligence threats to US pursuits. For
      instance, Iranian and Cuban intelligence and safety providers proceed to view the US as a
      major risk.
      Penetrating the US nationwide decisionmaking equipment and the Intelligence Neighborhood will stay
      major goals for quite a few overseas intelligence entities. Moreover, the focusing on of nationwide
      safety info and proprietary info from US corporations and analysis establishments concerned
      with protection, vitality, finance, dual-use expertise, and different areas will stay a persistent risk to US
      pursuits.
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      Non-state entities, together with worldwide terrorists and transnational organized crime teams, are prone to
      proceed to make use of and enhance their intelligence capabilities together with by human, technical, and cyber
      means. As with state intelligence providers, these non-state entities recruit sources and carry out bodily
      and technical surveillance to facilitate their illicit actions and keep away from detection and seize.
      Trusted insiders who disclose delicate or categorised US Authorities info with out authorization will
      stay a major risk in 2017 and past. The sophistication and availability of knowledge
      expertise that will increase the scope and influence of unauthorized disclosures exacerbate this risk.
      TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
      Rising US Drug Menace
      The illicit drug risk the US is intensifying, as indicated by hovering US drug deaths, overseas
      drug manufacturing, and drug seizures.
       Deaths from artificial opioids—together with fentanyl and its analogues—elevated 73 % in 2015
      in comparison with 2014, and mortality from all different illicit medication elevated 36 % for a similar interval,
      based on the US Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC). Preliminary knowledge for 2016
      from some states counsel that deaths have continued to extend.
       Seizures of cocaine and methamphetamine elevated alongside the US southwest border in 2016 over
      2015.
      Rising overseas drug manufacturing, the endurance of Mexican trafficking networks, and powerful demand are
      driving the US drug risk.
       In Mexico, the dominant supply of US heroin, potential heroin manufacturing doubled from 2014 to 2016,
      based on the US Authorities estimates.
       Manufacturing of cocaine reached the best ranges on report for Colombia in 2016 and for Peru and
      Bolivia in 2015—the final years for which estimates can be found—pushed partially by a decline in coca
      eradication efforts.
      Artificial medication from Asia—together with artificial opioids, cannabinoids, and cathinones—pose a robust
      and doubtless rising risk and have the potential to displace some conventional medication produced from
      vegetation. Such medication are sometimes traded through the Web or—within the case of cannabinoids and cathinones—
      offered over-the-counter in merchandise marked “not meant for human consumption.” Counterfeit and
      substandard pharmaceutical trafficking can be on the rise, with the Web being the first means by
      which transnational prison organizations goal US residents.
       Roughly 18-20 new unlawful on-line pharmacy domains are registered on daily basis, in accordance
      to estimates of the Meals and Drug Administration, including to the tens of 1000’s of present unlawful
      on-line pharmacies in operation.
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      Crime Permits Different Nefarious Actors
      Transnational Organized Crime (TOC) will pose a unbroken risk to the US and its allies
      via shut relationships with overseas states and non-state actors. Some states use TOC networks as
      proxies to interact in actions from which the states want to distance themselves. TOC networks additionally
      have the power to seize territory in states or parts of states and management it with violence and
      corruption of public officers. They typically obtain sanctuary on account of offering social providers,
      incorporating corruptive strategies, and creating dependencies. TOC networks facilitate terrorism by
      offering cash and providers, reminiscent of promoting weapons. In addition they interact in cyber-based theft and
      extortion and supply their capabilities to different cyber actors.
       Hong Kong police arrested six people with suspected Chinese language organized crime hyperlinks in connection
      with demise threats to a lawmaker elected in September 2016 who advocated for larger autonomy
      from China.
       In 2015, MS-13 gang members in San Pedro Sula, Honduras supplied meals to kids and the
      aged, shielded residents from rival criminals, meted out justice for unauthorized crimes, and halted
      criminals from unofficially taxing residents and small companies. Such Help to native communities
      undermines authorities legitimacy and engenders public Help for the prison teams.
      World Human Trafficking Dangers Rising
      The variety of people vulnerable to human trafficking will nearly actually rise in 2017 as a result of inner
      battle, societal violence, and environmental crises are rising the populations of refugees and
      Internally Displaced Individuals (IDP). Dangers of human trafficking vulnerability intensify throughout disaster
      conditions when people typically lose their Help networks and sources of livelihood. Along with
      crisis-induced displacement, entrenched structural components—together with political instability, authorities
      corruption, weak rule of regulation, gentle economies, low ranges of democracy, and discrimination towards ladies,
      kids, and minorities—will very doubtless proceed to extend potential victims’ vulnerability to human
      trafficking worldwide.
      Wildlife Trafficking and Unlawful Fishing
      Wildlife trafficking and poaching are widespread in lots of international locations, particularly these grappling with
      corruption, weak judiciaries, and scarce state sources. Some wildlife traffickers additionally transfer different
      contraband, reminiscent of medication and weapons, at occasions counting on the identical corrupt protectors. Consciousness of
      wildlife crime and its influence is rising amongst supply and demand international locations, and regional leaders in
      Africa more and more acknowledge the hyperlinks amongst poaching, wildlife trafficking, instability, corruption,
      crime, and challenges to the rule of regulation.
      World fisheries face an existential risk within the many years forward from surging worldwide demand,
      declining ocean well being, and continued unlawful, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. IUU fishing additionally
      harms legit fishing actions and livelihoods, jeopardizes meals and financial safety, advantages
      transnational crime, distorts markets, contributes to human trafficking, and undermines ongoing efforts to
      implement sustainable fisheries insurance policies. It could additionally heighten tensions inside and between international locations and
      encourage piracy and steadily includes pressured labor, a type of human trafficking.
      12
      ECONOMICS AND NATURAL RESOURCES
      World development is prone to stay subdued in 2017 amid rising headwinds in China’s economic system and tepid
      development in superior economies. Worldwide gross home product (GDP) development was just about
      unchanged in 2016 from the earlier 12 months at three.1 % and is forecast to develop three.5 % in 2017,
      in accordance the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF). Enhancing development in commodity-dependent economies
      is prone to enhance international financial exercise past 2017. Opposed shocks, nonetheless, reminiscent of a larger
      slowdown in China than the IMF initiatives or capital outflows from rising markets stemming from rising
      US rates of interest, would put the modest international financial restoration in danger.
      Macroeconomic Stability
      The outlook for rising markets and creating international locations is enhancing, primarily due to stabilizing
      commodity costs and elevated capital inflows. The IMF forecasts that development in rising economies
      will speed up to four.5 % in 2017 as recoveries begin to take maintain in a number of international locations. Nonetheless, rising
      non-performing loans in China may reinforce the deceleration in Chinese language financial development, weighing on
      international financial and monetary circumstances and dampening international demand, significantly for commodities.
      Furthermore, the prospect of upper rates of interest in the US and a strengthening greenback may lead
      to sustained capital outflows once more from rising markets.
      Continued strong efficiency by the US and more and more steady circumstances in lots of European
      states will most likely Help to Help development in developed economies. Many European international locations and
      Japan, nonetheless, proceed to depend on low rates of interest and accommodative financial insurance policies to counter
      weak demand. Coverage uncertainty additionally poses dangers to the worldwide economic system.
      Power and Commodities
      Subdued development, significantly within the industrialized economies, had a unfavourable influence on commodity costs
      in recent times, which have been significantly dangerous for rising market economies, with the exception
      of internet commodity importers, reminiscent of China and India. A collapsing economic system in Venezuela—the results of
      the oil-price decline and years of flawed financial coverage and profligate authorities spending—will go away
      Caracas struggling to keep away from default in 2017. Saudi Arabia and different Persian Gulf oil exporters, who
      typically have extra substantial monetary reserves, have nonetheless seen a pointy improve in finances
      deficits which have pressured politically unpopular fiscal reforms reminiscent of cuts to subsidies, authorities
      spending, and authorities jobs. In Africa, declining oil revenues, previous mismanagement, and insufficient
      coverage responses to grease value shock have contributed to Angolan and Nigerian fiscal issues, forex
      strains, and deteriorating overseas change reserves. The World Financial institution forecasts that costs for many
      commodities, nonetheless, will improve barely in 2017 as markets proceed to rebalance, albeit at decrease
      ranges than earlier within the decade.
      Sluggish development of world demand for oil and low costs proceed to discourage plans to develop new
      sources and develop present initiatives—significantly in high-cost areas such because the Arctic, Brazilian presalt area, or West Africa’s deepwater. Initiatives already beneath growth will most likely be accomplished
      in the course of the subsequent 5 years, however longer-term prospects have been slashed, doubtlessly setting the stage for
      shortfalls and better costs when demand recovers.
      13
      The Arctic
      Arctic international locations face an array of challenges and alternatives as diminishing sea ice will increase
      industrial delivery prospects and doable competitors over undersea sources in coming many years. In
      August 2016, the primary large-capacity cruise ship traversed the Northwest Passage, and extra such journeys
      are deliberate. In September 2016, NASA measured the Arctic sea ice minimal extent at roughly 900,000
      sq. miles lower than the 1981-2010 common. Comparatively low financial stakes previously and pretty properly
      established unique financial zones (EEZs) among the many Arctic states have facilitated cooperation in
      pursuit of shared pursuits within the area, at the same time as polar ice has receded and Arctic-capable expertise has
      improved. Nonetheless, because the Arctic turns into extra open to delivery and industrial exploitation, we
      assess that danger of competitors over entry to sea routes and sources, together with fish, will embrace
      international locations historically lively within the Arctic in addition to different international locations that don’t border on the area however
      more and more look to advance their financial pursuits there.
      HUMAN SECURITY
      Environmental Dangers and Local weather Change
      The pattern towards a warming local weather is forecast to proceed in 2017. The UN World Meteorological
      Group (WMO) is warning that 2017 is prone to be among the many hottest years on report—though
      barely colder than 2016 because the robust El Nino circumstances that influenced that 12 months have abated. The
      US Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Nationwide Aeronautics and House
      Administration (NASA) reported that 2016 was the most popular 12 months since fashionable measurements started in
2026. This warming is projected to gasoline extra intense and frequent excessive climate occasions that can be
      distributed unequally in time and geography. Nations with massive populations in coastal areas are
      significantly susceptible to tropical climate occasions and storm surges, particularly in Asia and Africa.
      World air air pollution is worsening as extra international locations expertise fast industrialization, urbanization, forest
      burning, and agricultural waste incineration, based on the World Well being Group (WHO). An
      estimated 92 % of the world’s inhabitants stay in areas the place WHO air high quality requirements will not be met,
      based on 2014 info compiled by the WHO. Individuals in low-income cities are most affected, with
      probably the most polluted cities situated within the Center East, Asia, and Africa. Public dissatisfaction with air high quality
      may drive protests in opposition to authorities, reminiscent of these seen in recent times in China, India, and Iran.
      Heightened tensions over shared water sources are doubtless in some areas. The dispute between Egypt
      and Ethiopia over the development of the huge Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile
      is prone to intensify as a result of Ethiopia plans to start filling the reservoir in 2017.
      World biodiversity will doubtless proceed to say no resulting from habitat loss, overexploitation, air pollution, and
      invasive species, based on a examine by a nongovernmental conservation group, disrupting
      ecosystems that Help life, together with people. Since 1970, vertebrate populations have declined an
      estimated 60 %, based on the identical examine, whereas populations in freshwater techniques declined
      14
      greater than 80 %. The speed of species loss worldwide is estimated at 100 to 1,000 occasions increased than
      the pure background extinction fee, based on peer-reviewed scientific literature.
      We assess nationwide safety implications of local weather change however don’t adjudicate the science of local weather
      change. In assessing these implications, we depend on US government-coordinated scientific studies, peerreviewed literature, and studies produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC),
      which is the main worldwide physique chargeable for assessing the science associated to local weather change.
      Well being
      The Zika virus is prone to proceed to have an effect on the Western Hemisphere via 2017. Though it’s inflicting
      minor or no sickness for many contaminated folks, it’s producing extreme beginning defects in about 10 % of
      infants born to moms who have been contaminated whereas pregnant and is probably going inflicting neurological signs for
      a small variety of contaminated adults. A separate pressure of the virus will doubtless proceed to have an effect on Southeast
      Asia, the place scientists consider it has circulated for the reason that 1960s. Nonetheless, scientists have no idea whether or not
      the virus will trigger a spike in beginning defects there. Earlier outbreaks in Asia and Africa may present at
      least partial immunity and hinder the virus’s unfold in these areas.
      The continued rise of antimicrobial resistance—the power of pathogens, together with viruses, fungi, and
      micro organism, to withstand drug remedy—is prone to outpace growth of latest antimicrobial medication. This
      resistance will lead to more and more tough or impossible-to-cure infections of beforehand curable
      illnesses. Drug-resistant types of malaria and tuberculosis are on the rise, threatening progress in
      controlling these illnesses. In the meantime, some strains of gonorrhea are exhibiting resistance to just about all
      courses of antibiotics, leaving solely remedies of final resort, drastically rising the chance of incurable strains.
      HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis proceed to kill tens of millions of individuals yearly and hinder growth in
      many resource-constrained international locations regardless of important progress to alleviate the worldwide burden of
      infectious illnesses. Stagnating or declining funding for international well being initiatives and lack of home
      sources threaten the continued progress in opposition to well being threats regardless of the provision of extra costeffective remedies. Quickly increasing populations, significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, put extra
      stress on scarce sources. Malnutrition, weak healthcare techniques, battle, migration, poor governance,
      and urbanization will worsen the emergence, unfold, and severity of illness outbreaks.
      The emergence of a extreme international public well being emergency is feasible in any given 12 months and might have
      unfavourable impacts on the safety and stability of a nation or area. A novel or reemerging microbe that’s
      simply transmissible between people and is extremely pathogenic stays a serious risk as a result of such an
      organism has the potential to unfold quickly and kill tens of millions. Threats reminiscent of avian influenza and Center
      East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have pandemic potential. The World Financial institution has
      estimated extreme international influenza pandemic may value the equal of four.eight % of world GDP,
      or greater than $three trillion, in the course of the course of an outbreak.
      Atrocities and Instability
      Danger of large-scale, violent or regime-threatening instability and atrocities will stay elevated in 2017.
      Poor governance, weak nationwide political establishments, financial inequality, and the rise of violent non-state
      actors all undermine states’ skills to undertaking authority.
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       Weak state capability can heighten the chance for atrocities, together with arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial
      killings, rape, and torture.
      Teams that promote civil society and democratization are prone to proceed to face restrictions in 2017.
      Freedom Home reported the eleventh consecutive 12 months of decline in “international freedom” in 2017. Center
      East and North Africa had scores as one of many worst areas on the planet in 2015.
      World Displacement
      In 2015, the variety of folks forcibly displaced reached the best ranges ever recorded by the UN. In
      many circumstances, US companions and allies have been both the supply of refugees and different migrants—reminiscent of
      Afghanistan and South Sudan—or hosted them—reminiscent of Ethiopia, Europe, Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon,
      Turkey, and Uganda. These international locations and others will look to the US, the UN, and different
      worldwide donors to Help meet unprecedented help calls for in 2017. Ongoing conflicts will
      proceed to displace folks, protecting displacement at report highs as a result of few folks can safely return
      dwelling and members of the family search to hitch those that left. Europe and different host international locations will face
      lodging and integration challenges in 2017, and refugees and financial migrants will most likely
      proceed to hunt to transit to Europe.
       Major drivers of world displacement embrace: conflicts, reminiscent of these in Afghanistan, Somalia,
      South Sudan, and Syria; weak border controls, reminiscent of in Libya, which broadened a route from Africa
      to Europe; comparatively simple and inexpensive entry to routes and knowledge; endemic violence, reminiscent of
      in elements of Burundi, Central America, Nigeria, and Pakistan; and persecution, reminiscent of in Burma and
      Eritrea.
       The UN estimated that 65.three million individuals had been forcibly displaced worldwide on the finish of
      2015, together with roughly 21.three million refugees, 40.eight million IDPs, and three.2 million asylum
      seekers. Refugees displaced for 5 or extra years usually tend to stay of their host
      communities than to return dwelling, based on tutorial analysis.
       In 2016, 1000’s of Syrian, Somali, Sudanese, and Afghan refugees who had fled their international locations in
      previous years have been returned to their international locations of origin, that are nonetheless present process intense battle.
      These returnees at the moment are internally displaced in areas nonetheless in battle.
      The dimensions of human displacement in 2017 will proceed to pressure the response capability of the worldwide
      neighborhood and drive report requests for humanitarian funding. Host and transit international locations will wrestle to
      develop efficient insurance policies and handle home issues of terrorists exploiting migrant flows, significantly
      after assaults in 2016 by foreigners in Belgium, France, Germany, and Turkey.
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      REGIONAL THREATS
      EAST ASIA
      China
      China will proceed to pursue an lively overseas coverage—particularly throughout the Asia Pacific area—
      highlighted by a agency stance on competing territorial claims within the East China Sea (ECS) and South China
      Sea (SCS), relations with Taiwan, and its pursuit of financial engagement throughout East Asia. Regional
      rigidity will persist as China completes building at its expanded outposts within the SCS regardless of an
      overwhelmingly robust ruling in opposition to it by a UN Conference on the Regulation of the Sea (UNCLOS) arbitral
      tribunal in July 2016. China may even pursue efforts geared toward fulfilling its formidable “One Belt, One Highway”
      initiative to develop China’s financial function and outreach throughout Asia via infrastructure initiatives.
      China will search to construct on its internet hosting of the G20 Summit in Hangzhou in September 2016, its “One-Belt,
      One-Highway” initiative, and progress on launching the Asia Infrastructure Funding Financial institution to extend its
      international presence on worldwide financial points. China will more and more be a think about international responses
      to rising issues, as illustrated by China’s participation in UN peacekeeping operations, its
      increasing counterterrorism cooperation, and infrastructure building in Africa and Pakistan as a part of
      the China-Pakistan Financial Hall.
      Domestically, Chinese language leaders will transfer cautiously on their formidable reform agenda, keep their anticorruption marketing campaign, and attempt to handle China’s slowing economic system. China’s financial development continues
      to be pushed by unsustainable debt accumulation, however Beijing has made restricted progress on reforms
      wanted to spice up financial efficiencies. Debates amongst Chinese language leaders over coverage and personnel
      selections will intensify earlier than the management transition on the 19th Occasion Congress in fall 2017 when Chinese language
      President Xi Jinping will start his second time period as the pinnacle of the Chinese language Communist Occasion.
      North Korea
      North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction program, public threats, defiance of the worldwide
      neighborhood, confrontational army posturing, cyber actions, and potential for inner instability pose a
      advanced and more and more grave nationwide safety risk to the US and its pursuits.
      North Korea’s unprecedented degree of testing and shows of strategic weapons in 2016 point out that Kim
      is intent on proving he has the aptitude to strike the US mainland with nuclear weapons. In 2016, the
      regime performed two nuclear exams—together with one which was claimed to be of a standardized warhead
      design—and an unprecedented variety of missile launches, together with an area launch that put a satellite tv for pc
      into orbit. These ballistic missile exams most likely shortened North Korea’s pathway towards a dependable ICBM,
      which largely makes use of the identical expertise. Kim was additionally photographed beside a nuclear warhead design
      and missile airframes to indicate that North Korea has warheads sufficiently small to suit on a missile, inspecting
      a reentry-vehicle nosecone after a simulated reentry, and overseeing launches from a submarine and
      from cellular launchers within the discipline, purportedly simulating nuclear use in warfighting situations. North
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      Korea is poised to conduct its first ICBM flight check in 2017 based mostly on public feedback that preparations to
      achieve this are nearly full and would function a milestone towards a extra dependable risk to the US
      mainland. Pyongyang’s enshrinement of the possession of nuclear weapons in its structure, whereas
      repeatedly stating that nuclear weapons are the idea for its survival, means that Kim doesn’t intend
      to barter them away at any value.
      North Korea has lengthy posed a reputable and evolving army risk to South Korea and, to a lesser extent,
      Japan. North Korea possesses a considerable variety of confirmed cellular ballistic missiles, able to
      hanging a wide range of targets in each international locations, as demonstrated in profitable launches in 2016. Kim has
      additional expanded the regime’s typical strike choices in recent times, with extra lifelike coaching,
      artillery upgrades, and new close-range ballistic missiles that allow precision fireplace at ranges that may
      attain extra US and allied targets in South Korea.
      After 5 years in energy, North Korean chief Kim Jong Un continues to defy worldwide sanctions for
      his nation’s conduct and reinforce his authority via purges, executions, and management shuffles,
      proscribing basic freedoms, and imposing controls on info. He notably unveiled new ruling
      buildings along side the primary Korean Staff Occasion Congress in a era, held in Might 2016.
      Southeast Asia
      Democracy in lots of Southeast Asian international locations will stay fragile in 2017. Elites—quite than the
      populace—retain a major degree of management and sometimes form governance reforms to profit their
      particular person pursuits quite than to advertise democratic values. Corruption and cronyism proceed to be
      rampant within the area, and the specter of ISIS and home terrorist teams may present some
      governments with a brand new rationale to handle not solely the terrorist risk but in addition to curb political
      opposition actions, as some regional leaders did within the post-9/11 atmosphere.
      Within the Philippines, aggressive campaigns in opposition to corruption, crime, and medicines will most likely proceed
      regardless of costs by Filipino critics and worldwide organizations that it’s fostering a permissive
      atmosphere for extrajudicial killings. Philippine efforts to diversify Manila’s overseas relations away from
      the US have elevated uncertainty about the way forward for Philippine-US safety ties. Thailand is
      present process its most vital transition in 70 years following the demise of the king. In Burma, the
      authorities led by the Nationwide League for Democracy (NLD) seeks to proceed the nation’s democratic
      transition course of, however the army, which has retained important political and financial energy and
      unique management over the safety forces, generally undermines the civilian authorities’s goals. In
      addition, the NLD can be challenged by its lack of governing expertise and provisions of the 2008
      Structure that don’t align with democratic norms. Burma’s Authorities will continued to be
      challenged in coping with the standing of the Muslim minority Rohingya in western Burma.
      Cohesion of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on financial and safety points will
      proceed to be challenged by differing growth ranges amongst ASEAN members, their various
      financial dependencies on China, and their views of the specter of Beijing’s regional ambitions and
      assertiveness within the SCS. Southeast Asian SCS claimants will proceed to hunt varied methods to
      strengthen cooperation within the area and, in some circumstances, with the US on maritime safety
      points.
      18
      RUSSIA AND EURASIA
      Russia
      In 2017, Russia is prone to be extra assertive in international affairs, extra unpredictable in its method to the
      United States, and extra authoritarian in its method to home politics. Emboldened by Moscow’s
      means to have an effect on battlefield dynamics in Syria and by the emergence of populist and extra pro-Russian
      governments in Europe, President Vladimir Putin is prone to take proactive actions that advance Russia’s
      nice energy standing.
      Putin will search to forestall any challenges to his rule within the runup to presidential elections scheduled for
2027. Putin stays standard at dwelling, however low turnout within the Duma elections in 2016 and sustained
      financial hardship will most likely improve Putin’s issues about his means to keep up management. Putin is
      prone to proceed to depend on repression, state management over media shops, and harsh ways to regulate the
      political elite and stifle public dissent.
      Russia is prone to emerge from its two-year recession in 2017, however the prospects for a robust restoration are
      slim. Russia is prone to obtain 1.three % GDP development in 2017 and 1.7 % in 2018, based on
      industrial forecasts. Putin has lengthy sought to keep away from structural reforms that may weaken his management of
      the nation and is unlikely to implement substantial reforms earlier than the presidential elections.
      We assess that Russia will proceed to look to leverage its army Help to the Asad regime to drive a
      political settlement course of in Syria on its phrases. Moscow has demonstrated that it might maintain a modest
      drive at a high-operations tempo in a permissive, expeditionary setting whereas minimizing Russian
      casualties and financial prices. Moscow can be doubtless to make use of Russia’s army intervention in Syria, in
      conjunction with efforts to capitalize on fears of a rising ISIS and extremist risk, to develop its function in
      the Center East.
      We assess that Moscow’s strategic goals in Ukraine—sustaining long-term affect over Kyiv and
      irritating Ukraine’s makes an attempt to combine into Western establishments—will stay unchanged in 2017.
      Putin is prone to keep stress on Kyiv via a number of channels, together with via Russia’s actions
      in japanese Ukraine, the place Russia arms so-called “separatists. Moscow additionally seeks to undermine
      Ukraine’s fragile financial system and divided political scenario to create alternatives to rebuild and
      consolidate Russian affect in Ukrainian decisionmaking.
      Moscow may even search to use Europe’s fissures and rising populist sentiment in an effort to thwart
      EU sanctions renewal, justify or at the very least obfuscate Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, and weaken the
      attraction of Western integration for international locations on Russia’s periphery. Specifically, Russia is prone to
      maintain or improve its propaganda campaigns. Russia is prone to proceed to financially and politically
      Help populist and extremist events to sow discord inside European states and scale back standard Help
      for the European Union.
      The Kremlin can be prone to proceed to see protection modernization as a high nationwide precedence even because the
      cumulative impact on the economic system of low oil costs, sanctions, and systemic issues serves as a drag on
      key army objectives. Moscow is pursuing a variety of nuclear, typical, and uneven
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      capabilities designed to attain qualitative parity with the US. These capabilities will give
      Moscow extra choices to counter US forces and weapons techniques.
      Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova
      Russia’s army intervention in japanese Ukraine continues greater than two years after the “Minsk II”
      settlement concluded in February 2015. Russia continues to exert army and diplomatic stress to
      coerce Ukraine into implementing Moscow’s interpretation of the political provisions of the settlement—
      amongst them, constitutional amendments that may successfully give Moscow a veto over Kyiv’s strategic
      selections. Home Ukrainian opposition to creating political concessions to Russia—particularly whereas
      preventing continues in japanese Ukraine—will restrict Kyiv’s willingness and talent to compromise, complicating
      prospects for implementing the Minsk settlement. Russia largely controls the extent of violence, which it
      makes use of to exert stress on Kyiv and the negotiating course of, and fluctuating ranges of violence will most likely
      proceed alongside the entrance line. The wrestle of Ukraine to reform its corrupt establishments will decide
      whether or not it might stay on a European path or fall sufferer once more to elite infighting and Russian affect.
      Rising standard discontent in Belarus will most likely complicate the federal government’s efforts to keep up its
      improved relations with the US and the EU, that are geared toward bolstering its flagging economic system
      and preserving some diplomatic maneuvering room with Russia. Minsk will proceed shut safety
      cooperation with Moscow however will most likely proceed to oppose the institution of Russian army
      bases in Belarus.
      Moldova will most likely additionally search to stability its relations with Russia and the West quite than pursue a
      main shift in both path. The Moldovan Authorities will nearly actually search to maneuver ahead on
      implementing Moldova’s EU Affiliation Settlement regardless of the election of a extra pro-Russian president.
      Settlement talks over the breakaway area of Transnistria will proceed, however any progress is prone to be
      restricted to smaller points.
      The Caucasus and Central Asia
      In Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) coalition’s decisive electoral victory in 2016 is prone to
      facilitate GD’s efforts to focus on the previous ruling United Nationwide Motion and develop political management.
      GD will proceed to pursue larger Euro-Atlantic integration by making an attempt to cement ties with NATO and
      the EU.
      Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the separatist area of Nagorno-Karabakh flared in
      April 2016, and each side’ unwillingness to compromise and mounting home pressures counsel that
      the potential for large-scale hostilities will stay in 2017. In Azerbaijan, ongoing financial difficulties
      are prone to problem the regime and improve its tendency to repress dissent to keep up energy whereas it
      continues to attempt to stability relations with Russia, Iran, and the West.
      Central Asian states will proceed to stability their relations amongst Russia, China, and the West to
      pursue financial and safety help and defend their regimes’ maintain on energy. They continue to be
      involved about the specter of extremism to their stability, significantly in gentle of a decreased Coalition
      presence in Afghanistan. Russia and China share these issues and are doubtless to make use of the specter of
      instability in Afghanistan to attempt to improve their involvement in Central Asian safety affairs. Financial
      20
      challenges stemming from official mismanagement, low commodity costs, declining commerce and
      remittances related to weakening economies of Russia and China, ethnic tensions, and political
      repression are prone to current probably the most important threats to stability in these international locations.
      EUROPE
      Key Companions
      The severity of a number of crises dealing with Europe—irregular migration, safety threats, gradual financial development,
      and protracted debt points—will problem European coverage cohesion and customary motion. Moreover,
      the shape and substance of the UK’s exit (Brexit) from the European Union will distract European
      policymakers.
      Migration
      The EU-Turkey Assertion addressing migration points concluded in March 2016 and that tightened
      border controls within the Balkans will proceed to restrict migration to Europe. Preserving the EU-Turkey
      settlement, finishing commerce offers and making investments supplied to 5 African international locations, and
      guaranteeing the success of a repatriation take care of Afghanistan will doubtless stay a spotlight for Europe.
      Security
      Terrorists have taken benefit of the inflow of migrants and a possible rise in returning overseas fighters
      from the conflicts in Iraq and Syria may compound the issue. Europe will stay susceptible to
      terrorist assaults, and parts of each ISIS and al-Qa’ida are prone to proceed to direct and allow plots
      in opposition to targets in Europe
      Some European states see Russia as much less of a risk to Europe than others do, even because the Baltic states
      and Poland start to host multinational battalions as a part of NATO’s enhanced Ahead Presence.
      Financial/Monetary Points
      The European Fee initiatives that euro-zone development can be about 1.6 % in 2017. Its
      projections are based mostly on weak funding development, uncertainty stemming from Brexit, potential disruptions
      to commerce, and political and sensible limits to increasing financial and financial efforts to Help development.
      Turkey
      President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s slim win within the mid-April standard referendum on increasing his
      powers and the ruling Justice and Growth Occasion’s (AKP’s) post-coup crackdowns are rising
      societal and political rigidity in Turkey.
      Turkey’s relations with the US are strained as a result of Ankara calculates that the US
      has empowered Turkey’s major safety risk—the Kurdistan Staff’ Occasion (PKK)—by partnering
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      with the Syrian Kurdish Individuals’s Safety Items (YPG), which Turkey alleges is aligned with the PKK.
      European admonition of Turkey’s conduct in the course of the referendum—together with limitations European
      international locations positioned on Turkish campaigning on their soil—is additional straining Turkish ties to the EU.
       Two main Turkish complaints are Washington’s unwillingness to satisfy Turkish calls for to extradite
      US-person Fethullah Gulen—accused by the Turkish Authorities of orchestrating the failed coup in
      July 2016—and US Help to the YPG in Syria.
       In November 2016, the Turkish president indicated that he could be keen to contemplate becoming a member of the
      Russian-led Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) as a substitute for the EU.
      MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
      Syria
      We assess that the Syrian regime, backed by Russia and Iran, will keep its momentum on the
      battlefield however that the regime and the opposition will not be prone to agree on a political settlement in 2017.
      Damascus has dedicated to take part in peace talks however is unlikely to supply greater than beauty
      concessions to the opposition. The opposition, though on the defensive, is ready to counterattack, which
      will most likely stop the regime from asserting territorial management over western and southern Syria, and
      stays dedicated to President Bashar al-Asad’s departure.
      The Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) has misplaced about 45 % of the territory it held in Syria in
      August 2014, nevertheless it nonetheless controls a lot of the japanese part of the nation, together with the town of Ar
      Raqqah. ISIS will doubtless have sufficient sources and fighters to maintain insurgency operations and plan
      terrorists assaults within the area and internationally.
      Asad’s overseas supporters—Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hizballah—wish to maintain an allied regime in
      energy and keep their affect in Syria. Moscow’s deployment of fight belongings to Syria in late 2015
      helped change the momentum of the battle; Russia has supplied fight plane, warships, artillery,
      arms, and ammunition. Iran gives army recommendation, fighters, weaponry, gasoline, and Shia militants.
      Lebanese Hizballah gives fighters and helps management the Lebanon-Syria border.
      Most opposition backers keep their Help, partially by linking Asad’s regime to Iran’s malign affect
      within the area, however their lack of unity will hamper their effectiveness.
      Syrian Kurdish Individuals’s Safety Items (YPG) management a lot of northern Syria and have labored intently
      with coalition forces to grab terrain from ISIS. The YPG’s purpose to unite its “cantons” throughout northern
      Syria is opposed by most Syrian Arabs and by Turkey, which views these Kurdish aspirations as a risk
      to its safety. To weaken ISIS and test the Kurds, Ankara has used Syrian opposition teams, backed
      by Turkish artillery, plane, and armored autos, to determine a border safety zone in Syria.
      The continuation of the Syrian battle will worsen already-disastrous circumstances for Syrians and regional
      states and keep migration stress on Europe. As of late March 2017, greater than four.9 million Syrians
      22
      have left the nation from a pre-conflict inhabitants of roughly 23 million, and an extra 6.three
      million have been internally displaced. ISIS’s presence in Syria and talent to stage cross-border assaults will
      proceed to jeopardize Iraq’s stability.
      Iraq
      The Iraqi Authorities’s major focus via 2017 can be recapturing and stabilizing Mosul, the biggest
      city ISIS stronghold in Iraq, and different ISIS-held territory. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Kurdish
      Peshmerga with coalition Help and forces of the Shia-dominated Well-liked Mobilization Committee
      (PMC) are all concerned within the Mosul marketing campaign. Confronted with the eventual lack of Mosul, ISIS is making ready to
      regroup and proceed an insurgency and terrorist marketing campaign.
       Because the Mosul marketing campaign progresses, Baghdad faces potential tensions between the Kurds and the
      Iranian-backed PMC members over disputed territory whereas additionally managing the Turkish presence in
      northern Iraq. Baghdad has rebuked Ankara for its presence at Bashiqa and warned of potential
      battle if Turkey intervenes any farther in northern Iraq. Tensions may persist properly after main
      counter-ISIS fight operations stop as exterior actors proceed to pursue their political and
      strategic objectives in Iraq.
      In the meantime, the Iraqi prime minister is attempting to fend off political challenges and address an economic system
      weakened by the combat with ISIS and depressed oil costs. A unfastened “reform” coalition within the Council of
      Representatives (COR) exploited political divisions in fall 2016 to take away the protection and finance
      ministers. Political factionalism has prevented the passage of wanted political reform, heightened mistrust
      amongst sectarian teams, and undermined governance.
       Iraq will most likely want worldwide monetary Help all through 2017, however Iraq’s funds may
      stabilize if oil costs proceed to slowly rise and Baghdad makes progress on its reform program. In
      2016, Iraq’s income from crude oil gross sales averaged $three.three billion per 30 days, lower than half the month-to-month
      income in 2014, regardless of an increase within the variety of barrels of oil exported. Oil gross sales account for about
      90 % of presidency revenues and make up nearly 50 % of Iraq’s GDP. The United
      States and Iraq concluded a sovereign mortgage settlement in late January 2017 that might Help Baghdad
      entry worldwide funds that it sorely must reconstruct areas liberated from ISIS.
      Iraq will face severe challenges to its stability, political viability, and territorial integrity after management of
      Mosul is wrested from ISIS. Greater than 200,000 people have been displaced from Mosul as a result of
      preventing. Nonetheless, a couple of third have since returned to their properties, and as many as 1 million civilians
      may be finally displaced, including to the three million displaced individuals in Iraq as of February 2016.
       Reconstruction of infrastructure and tens of 1000’s of civilian buildings destroyed by preventing in
      Sunni areas as soon as occupied by ISIS will value billions of and take years.
       Ethnosectarian reconciliation may even be a permanent problem. Iraqi Shia, Sunnis, and Kurds
      more and more view themselves as having diverging futures. ISIS will search to use any Sunni
      discontent with Baghdad and attempt to regain Iraqi territory, whereas the Kurds will most likely proceed
      efforts to determine an unbiased state.
      23
      Iran
      The Islamic Republic of Iran stays a permanent risk to US nationwide pursuits due to Iranian
      Help to anti-US terrorist teams and militants, the Asad regime, Huthi rebels in Yemen, and due to
      Iran’s growth of superior army capabilities. Regardless of Supreme Chief Khamenei’s conditional
      Help for the JCPOA nuclear deal carried out in January 2016, he’s extremely distrustful of US
      intentions. Iran’s leaders stay centered on thwarting US and Israeli affect and countering what they
      understand as a Saudi-led effort to gasoline Sunni extremism and terrorism in opposition to Iran and Shia communities
      all through the area.
      Iran is immersed in ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Iranian officers consider that participating
      adversaries away from Iran’s borders will Help stop instability from spilling into Iran and scale back ISIS’s
      risk to Iran and its regional companions. Iran’s involvement in these conflicts, together with sending a whole lot
      of its personal forces plus arming, financing, and coaching 1000’s of Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani Shia
      fighters to Help the Asad regime, has aggravated sectarianism and elevated tensions with different
      regional states. Tehran’s provision of support to the Huthis, together with unmanned aerial autos (UAVs),
      explosive boat expertise, and missile Help, dangers increasing and intensifying the battle in Yemen
      and the broader Iranian-Saudi dispute. We assess that Iran’s leaders intend to leverage their ties to native
      actors in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to construct long-term Iranian affect within the area. Iran may even make the most of its
      relationship with Moscow to attempt to develop Iranian affect and counter US stress.
      Hardliners, who consider that the West is making an attempt to infiltrate Iran to undermine the regime, have pushed
      the rise of arrests of residents since 2014 who’re twin nationals. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard
      Corps (IRGC) will doubtless proceed to scrutinize, arrest, and detain people with ties to the West,
      significantly twin US-Iranian and UK-Iranian residents. This follow will weaken prospects of attracting
      overseas funding into Iran’s economic system.
      Iran continues to develop a spread of latest army capabilities to observe and goal US and allied army
      belongings within the area, together with armed UAVs, ballistic missiles, superior naval mines, unmanned
      explosive boats, submarines and superior torpedoes, and anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles. Iran
      has the biggest ballistic missile drive within the Center East and might strike targets as much as 2,000 kilometers from
      Iran’s borders. Russia’s supply of the SA-20c surface-to-air missile system in 2016 gives Iran with its
      most superior long-range air protection system.
      IRGC Navy forces working aggressively within the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz pose a danger to the US
      Navy. Most IRGC interactions with US ships are skilled, though US Navy operators take into account
      roughly 10 % to be unsafe, irregular, or unprofessional. We assess that restricted aggressive
      interactions will proceed and are most likely meant to undertaking a picture of energy and probably to gauge
      US responses.
      24
      Yemen
      Preventing in Yemen will nearly actually persist in 2017 regardless of worldwide makes an attempt to forge cease-fires
      between Huthi-aligned forces, skilled by Iran, and the Yemeni Authorities, backed by a Saudi-led
      coalition. Neither the alliance between the Huthis and former Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Salih nor the
      authorities of Yemeni President Abd Rabuh Mansur Hadi has been in a position to obtain decisive outcomes
      via army drive, regardless of their distinguished worldwide backers. Efforts at peace talks are nascent,
      and each side stay cautious of the opposite’s intentions.
      As of late 2016, the preventing had displaced greater than 2 million folks and left 82 % of Yemen’s
      inhabitants in want of humanitarian support. Short-term cease-fires have allowed for some elevated entry
      for humanitarian organizations, however reduction operations are hindered by lack of safety, bureaucratic
      constraints, and funding shortages. Greater than half the inhabitants is experiencing disaster or emergency
      ranges of meals insecurity.
      AQAP and ISIS’s department in Yemen have exploited the battle and the collapse of presidency authority to
      acquire new recruits and allies and develop their affect. Each teams threaten Western pursuits in
      Yemen and have performed assaults on Huthi, Yemeni Authorities, and Saudi-led coalition targets.
      SOUTH ASIA
      Afghanistan
      The general scenario in Afghanistan will very doubtless proceed to deteriorate, even when worldwide Help is
      sustained. Endemic state weaknesses, the federal government’s political fragility, deficiencies of the Afghan
      Nationwide Security Forces (ANSF), Taliban persistence, and regional interference will stay key
      impediments to enchancment. Kabul’s political dysfunction and ineffectiveness will nearly actually be the
      best vulnerability to stability in 2017. ANSF efficiency will most likely worsen resulting from a mix
      of Taliban operations, ANSF fight casualties, desertions, poor logistics Help, and weak management.
      The ANSF will nearly actually stay closely depending on overseas army and monetary Help to
      maintain themselves and preclude their collapse. Though the Taliban was unsuccessful in seizing a
      provincial capital in 2016, it successfully navigated its second management transition in two years following
      the demise of its former chief, Mansur, and is prone to make good points in 2017. The preventing may even proceed
      to threaten US personnel, allies, and companions, significantly in Kabul and concrete inhabitants facilities. ISIS’s
      Khorasan department (ISIS-Okay)—which constitutes ISIS’s most vital presence in South Asia—will
      most likely stay a low-level creating risk to Afghan stability in addition to to US and Western pursuits
      within the area in 2017.
      Pakistan
      Pakistani-based terrorist teams will current a sustained risk to US pursuits within the area and proceed
      to plan and conduct assaults in India and Afghanistan. The risk to the US and the West from
      Pakistani-based terrorist teams can be persistent however diffuse. Plotting in opposition to the US homeland can be
      performed on a extra opportunistic foundation or pushed by particular person members inside these teams.
      25
      Pakistan will most likely be capable to handle its inner safety. Anti-Pakistan teams will most likely focus
      extra on gentle targets. The teams we decide will pose the best risk to Pakistan’s inner safety
      embrace Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, Jamaat ul-Ahrar, al-Qa’ida within the Indian Subcontinent, ISIS-Okay, Laskhare Jhangvi, and Lashkar-e Jhangvi al-Alami. The rising China Pakistan Financial Hall will
      most likely supply militants and terrorists extra targets.
      Pakistan’s pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons doubtlessly lowers the brink for his or her use. Early
      deployment throughout a disaster of smaller, extra cellular nuclear weapons would improve the period of time
      that techniques could be outdoors the relative safety of a storage web site, rising the chance coordinated
      assault by non-state actors may achieve capturing an entire nuclear weapon.
      India-Pakistan
      Relations between India and Pakistan stay tense following two main terrorist assaults in 2016 by
      militants crossing into India from Pakistan. They may deteriorate additional in 2017, particularly within the occasion
      of one other high-profile terrorist assault in India that New Delhi attributes to originating in or receiving
      help from Pakistan. Islamabad’s failure to curb Help to anti-India militants and New Delhi’s
      rising intolerance of this coverage, coupled with a perceived lack of progress in Pakistan’s investigations
      into the January 2016 Pathankot cross-border assault, set the stage for a deterioration of bilateral relations
      in 2016. Rising numbers of firefights alongside the Line of Management, together with the usage of artillery and
      mortars, may exacerbate the chance of unintended escalation between these nuclear-armed neighbors.
      Easing of heightened Indo-Pakistani rigidity, together with negotiations to resume official dialogue, will
      most likely hinge in 2017 on a pointy and sustained discount of cross-border assaults by terrorist teams
      based mostly in Pakistan and progress within the Pathankot investigation.
      SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
      South Sudan
      Clashes between Juba and the armed opposition will proceed, heightening ethnic tensions and
      exacerbating the humanitarian disaster and famine amid a declining economic system. Each side’ use of ethnic
      militias, hate speech, and the federal government’s crackdown in opposition to ethnic minorities increase the chance of
      extra mass atrocities. The federal government will most likely proceed to limit political freedoms and civil
      liberties and hinder humanitarian help.
      Sudan
      Khartoum most likely hopes to proceed constructive engagement with the US following
      Washington’s determination in January 2017 to droop some sanctions on Sudan. The regime will most likely
      largely adhere to a cessation of hostilities in battle areas—required to obtain sanctions reduction—however
      skirmishing between the Sudanese army and insurgent forces is prone to lead to low ranges of violence and
      inhabitants displacement. The regime’s army good points since March 2016 and divisions amongst armed
      opponents will nearly actually inhibit the insurgents’ means to make important political or army good points.
      26
      Public dissatisfaction over a weakened economic system and austerity measures, nonetheless, will check the
      authorities’s means to keep up order.
      Nigeria
      The Nigerian Authorities will confront a variety of challenges in 2017, lots of that are deeply
      rooted and don’t have any “fast repair.” Regardless of Nigeria’s progress in 2016 reclaiming territory from ISIS in West
      Africa (ISIS-WA) and Boko Haram, each terrorist teams will stay a risk to army and civilians in
      northeastern Nigeria, in addition to in neighboring Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Furthermore, Nigeria, with
      Africa’s largest economic system, is struggling a recession introduced on by low oil costs and militant assaults on its
      oil infrastructure. This recession is handicapping Abuja’s efforts to fight the terrorists and reply to a
      rising humanitarian disaster within the northeast.
      Sahel
      Governments in Africa’s Sahel area—significantly Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger—will stay in danger
      of inner battle and terrorist assaults in 2017. The area’s shared geography, ethnic and spiritual
      connections, and a pervasive lack of border safety have facilitated an increase in extremist teams, traffickers,
      and antigovernment militias for the reason that collapse of Libya in 2011 and the northern Mali rebellion in 2012.
      Al-Qa‘ida within the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al-Murabitun, Ansar al-Din, and different violent
      extremist teams will proceed attacking Western and native pursuits within the area.
      Somalia
      The Somali Authorities will proceed to depend on worldwide help, together with within the areas of civilian
      safety, service provision, dispute decision, safety, and humanitarian reduction. Progress in these
      areas is vital to keep up Help from troop-contributing international locations of the African Union Mission in
      Somalia (AMISOM), which plans to start withdrawing from Somalia in 2018.
      Ethiopia
      Ethiopia has confronted widespread public protests and ethnic tensions and can wrestle to handle the
      underlying grievances whereas preserving the facility of the ruling get together. The danger of instability is excessive. Addis
      Ababa declared a state of emergency in October 2016 and continues mass arrests, focusing on opposition
      leaders.
      Democratic Republic of the Congo
      A deal between the federal government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Congolese
      opposition and civil society over President Joseph Kabila’s time period extension has purchased the regime time.
      Kabila named an opposition member as prime minister in April, however elections are unlikely to be held by the
      finish of 2017 as referred to as for beneath the settlement. In the meantime, armed battle within the east perpetrated by
      militia teams will exacerbate severe humanitarian challenges.
      27
      WESTERN HEMISPHERE
      Mexico
      The Mexican Authorities will concentrate on home priorities to Help place the nation for the presidential
      election in 2018 whereas additionally looking for to restrict fallout from potential shifts within the bilateral relationship with the
      United States. Mexico can be challenged to make good points in opposition to corruption and rising crime and can
      proceed to depend on the army to stymie prison violence. Its $1.1 trillion economic system has benefitted from
      robust financial fundamentals and sturdy exports, however adjustments in commerce relationships may weaken the
      export sector and gradual financial development. Mexican migration to the US, which has decreased
      in recent times, may improve if financial alternative at dwelling declines. Apprehensions of
      undocumented Mexicans fell from about 268,000 in FY 2013 to 193,000 in FY 2016, based on DHS
      statistics.
      Central America
      Insecurity, lack of financial alternatives, want for household reunification, and views of US immigration
      coverage are prone to stay the principal drivers of migration from the Northern Triangle international locations of El
      Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to the US. Human smuggling networks will proceed to
      Help migrants navigate journey routes and safety on the US and Mexican border. Murder charges in these
      international locations stay excessive regardless of a decline in 2016, and gang-related violence continues to be prompting Central
      People to flee. DHS apprehensions alongside the southwest border of migrants from the Northern
      Triangle reached almost 200,000 in FY 2016 however have declined sharply since February 2017.
      Colombia
      The Colombian Authorities’s means to implement its historic peace take care of the Revolutionary Armed
      Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2017 can be key to the nation’s prospects for absolutely harnessing financial
      and funding alternatives. The peace deal ended the nation’s 52-year civil conflict with the FARC and
      demobilized the Western Hemisphere’s largest and longest-running insurgency. Colombia was already
      politically steady and markedly much less violent than 20 years in the past. Even so, some rapid post-conflict
      challenges will embrace stemming rising drug manufacturing and addressing social and financial inequality in
      rural areas.
      Cuba
      As Cuba heads into the ultimate 12 months of preparations for its deliberate historic management transition in early
      2018, the federal government’s focus can be on preserving the regime’s maintain on energy and coping with the
      falling financial development fee. Cuba blames its slowing economic system on decrease international commodity costs, the
      US embargo, and the financial disaster in Venezuela, a high commerce companion and vital supply of political
      Help and petroleum at beneficiant financing phrases. Havana, nonetheless, has stalled implementation of its
      personal reform program, together with adjustments to funding legal guidelines wanted to handle longstanding investor
      issues and plans to unify its twin forex and change fee system.
      28
      Some Cuban migration to the US through land routes via Central America and Mexico—
      particularly by Cubans already in transit—is prone to proceed regardless of a major lower following the
      finish of the US “Moist Foot, Dry Foot” coverage in January 2017. That coverage allowed most undocumented
      Cubans who reached US soil—versus being intercepted at sea—to stay in the US
      after which apply for lawful everlasting residency standing after one 12 months beneath the Cuban Adjustment Act of
2028. In FY 2016, some 42,000 Cuban migrants arrived on the US southwest border and maritime flows
      exceeded 7,300 migrants due to poor financial prospects in Cuba and apprehension about potential
      US coverage shifts.
      Venezuela
      Venezuela’s regime and the political opposition will stay at odds in 2017 as Venezuela’s home
      political and financial tensions intensify. The regime is struggling to comprise spiraling inflation and
      finance imports, creating shortages of foodstuffs and medicines within the oil-rich nation. The unpopular
      authorities costs that the opposition is waging an financial conflict and attempting to stage a political coup
      and can most likely ratchet up repression to keep up energy. Shortages of meals, drugs, and fundamental
      provides will most likely proceed to stoke tensions via 2017.

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